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Barry Jantz

CD 50 Election Central in SD

See attached invitation below for Tuesday nite Election Central.

This may be the first and last time I do this. FR Publisher and Big BloggerJon Fleischman, and therefore hisBaby Bloggers like me, have a general rule that we won’t post information in advance of events on these pages…and for good reason.

As Jon puts it, "we have a pretty steadfast policy of NOT promoting events. The reason is actually very simple. As soon as I publish something about an upcoming event, or attach an invitation to an email from me as publisher, I LITERALLY get bombarded with HUNDREDS of invitations to events. Everyone from the State GOP, candidates for state office, federal office, local office, even non-CA events, debates, rallies, women’s fed meetings, etc."

Sounds like loads of fun. With that said, I am going to make an exception, PLEASE NOTE, in this ONE case only, because 1) there is only one race in town, 2) there is only one election central tomorrow, and 3) the entire wheelbarrow full of Republican candidates in the 50th have been invited and will… Read More

Barry Jantz

Datamar Monday Tracking Survey in CD 50

UPDATE 8:10 pm: SurveyUSA poll…Thanks, Brandon Powers, for alerting us:

Busby 47 Roach 14 Bilbray 13 Kaloogian 9 Morrow 5 Uke 3

These numbers are tantalizingly close to Datamar’s, except for Busby, shown here within striking distance of the magic 50%. The reason is the sample. Here is the SurveyUSA explanation:

Datamar is relying on past voting history to determine who is a likely voter, including in its survey only voters who voted in both 2004 and 2002. SurveyUSA is relying on the stated intention and the stated passion of poll respondents to determine who is a likely voter. SurveyUSA’s likely voter model detects more enthusiasm among Democrats than among Republicans in CA 50. That is reflected in SurveyUSA’s voter-turnout model, and in the data we present here. Datamar shows 54% of likely voters to be Republican. SurveyUSA shows 45% of likely voters to be Republican. Datamar shows 32% of likely voters to be Democrat. SurveyUSA shows 37% of likely voters to be Democrat. Datamar shows 49% of likely voters to be male. SurveyUSA shows 51% of likely voters to beRead More

Jon Fleischman

Arnold on Amnesty – Special Elections – Predictions? – Fund

At the top of today’s main page is a link to column written by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in today’s Wall Street Journal. In it, he basically calls for tough border-security measures but als a "a policy of compassion" towards those millions of illegal aliens who are already living in America. It’s worth a read as the opinion of California’s Governor matters a lot in this debate.

Also leading the main page is a reminder that the FlashReport has some recommendations for voters in San Diego’s 50th Congressional District and Orange County’s 35 State Senate District, where special elections will take place tomorrow. It is clear that LOW VOTER TURNOUT will be impacting both races.

If you’ve been following the 50th Congressional District race, there is a chance for you to get some notoriety on the FlashReport. One of our San Diego Correspondents, La Mesa Councilman Barry Jantz, is inviting FR Readers to weigh in with their PREDICTIONS. He writes: Pick the winner in the 50th…Read More

Jon Fleischman

Today’s Commentary: Arnold on Amnesty – Special Elections – Predictions? – Fund

At the top of today’s main page is a link to column written by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in today’s Wall Street Journal. In it, he basically calls for tough border-security measures but also for "a policy of compassion" towards those millions of illegal aliens who are already living in America. It’s worth a read as the opinion of California’s Governor matters a lot in this debate.

Also leading the main page is a reminder that the FlashReport has some recommendations for voters in San Diego’s 50th Congressional District and Orange County’s 35 State Senate District, where special elections will take place tomorrow. It is clear that LOW VOTER TURNOUT will be impacting both races.

If you’ve been following the 50th Congressional District race, there is a chance for you to get some notoriety on the FlashReport. One of our San Diego Correspondents, La Mesa Councilman Barry Jantz, is inviting FR Readers to weigh in with their PREDICTIONS. He writes:

**There is more – click the link**Read More

It’s not over AND a reminder why Bill Jones still sucks.

ELECTION DAY IS TUESDAY – IT’S NOT OVER UNTIL 8PM

Over the last few days seemingly smart people have suggested to me that the race for the 35th Senate seat is over, done and in the bag. I like that they all say it is in the bag for Diane Harkey, but the fact is there is still an Election Day on Tuesday and anything can happen.

I will be the first to admit that absentee balloting is becoming the method of choice for campaigns and voters, especially in this series of special elections in OC. But Election Day is still a major factor and any campaign that concedes it is crazy.

Don’t forget to vote.

BILL JONES STILL SUCKS

I don’t want to recount all the ways, Bill Jones sucks. But I will highlight one that is evident today. When he was Secretary of State doing his best to avoid appearing like a Republican or taking any action to help Republicans he also made some really bad policy decisions. Chief among them was the ill-fated policy guidance he gave to California’s 58… Read More

Jon Fleischman

CD 50: Vote Republican, but not for Bilbray

"If I had to guess, Democrat Francine Busby will be voting for Brian Bilbray this Tuesday, because that is whom she despirately hopes to run against – the candidate who makes this seat the must vulnerable to a GOP loss." – Jon Fleischman, Publisher of the FlashReport.

In California’s 50th Congressional District, the primary for special election to replace the disgraced and now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham will take place in just three days. National attention will be paid to the outcome of this race. After all, no politician in memorable history has disgraced the office of Congress more flagrantly than Cunningham did, and add to it that as a special election, it is the only Congressional race being voted on in the country this Tuesday. Of particular interest has been the activity surrounding the campaign of Democrat candidate Francine Busby… Read More

Mike Spence

Candidate should have walked a Precinct.

I am working for a candidate running for Arcadia City Council. The election is April 11 and I keep telling him (Peter Amundson) to talk to voters. Stop getting distracted by peskythings like work and family.

Long Beach has an election April 11th as well. The Mayor’s race is wide open as the current Mayor Beverly O’Neill is retiring.

One candidate allegedly had something better to do than talk to voters. John Stolpe, a police officer, running for Mayor of Long Beach was arrested for exposing himself and resisting arrest. There are better ways to expose yourself to voters… walka precinct (voter ones, not police). See the revealing story here.Read More

Jon Fleischman

Today’s Commentary: CD 50: Vote Republican, but not for Bilbray

"If I had to guess, Democrat Francine Busby will be voting for Brian Bilbray this Tuesday, because that is whom she despirately hopes to run against – the candidate who makes this seat the must vulnerable to a GOP loss." – Jon Fleischman, Publisher of the FlashReport.

In California’s 50th Congressional District, the primary for special election to replace the disgraced and now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham will take place in just three days. National attention will be paid to the outcome of this race. After all, no politician in memorable history has disgraced the office of Congress more flagrantly than Cunningham did, and add to it that as a special election, it is the only Congressional race being voted on in the country this Tuesday. Of particular interest has been the activity surrounding the campaign of Democrat candidate Francine Busby… Read More