Conventional wisdom for the Special Election taking place today to replace John Campbell is that a low election-day turnout favor’s his choice to replace him — businesswoman Diane Harkey.

Well, if that’s the case, the fact that at my polling place in Irvine mid-day (it’s actually three large precincts consolidated into this one voting spot) – only two dozen or so voters have turned out today.

If this is the case district-wide, absentee ballot returns will account for an overwhelming majority of votes cast. And Harkey ran the best drill to those early voters…… Read More

It”s Election Day in OC but pretty quiet.

Here is a first hand account from a Huntington Beach voter and his wife. The names have been changed to protect the innocent.

SUBMITTED BY AN ACTUAL VOTER:

TAMY and I went into our polling place at 8:15–should be the heart of big-line times–at a polling station that included 5 consolidated precincts.

Democracy and OC were well served today, as it became pretty clear my wife and I were allowed to personally choose our next senator.

No line. Workers absolutely thrilled to see us. Only ones there, only one other signature on the voting lists was visible.

So while there’s still time to vote, early indications where I live (in the heart of Harman country–HB) it’s Harkey in a landslide 2-1 maybe even 3-0.… Read More

UPDATE: Harman leads by 439 votes now…TRENDING HARKEY.

UPDATE: Harman leads by 612 votes now…

Harman leads by less than 1% or 672 votes.

There are about 5000 absentee ballots, that were MAILED IN yesterday and today, still to be counted and probably won’t be counted until tomorrow.

More results at about 10:30pm. Click here to see them come in live.… Read More

All you hear about are the special elections in San Diego and Orange County. Big Deal. LA County has elections too you know.

Several cities are holding elections Arcadia, the scandal ridden Vernon election. You’ll see that in the paper tomorrow. And the Big one is theLong Beach Primary. Beverly O’Neil the three time Mayor (once by write in) is retiring and the race to replace includes a cop that got beat up by a park ranger (see it here). The frontrunner by most accounts is Bob Foster formerly of Southern California Edision. He is endorsed by everybody and has over 500K in the bank.

His competition comes from teo Republicans 3rd District Councilman Frank Colonna and the councilman he replaced Doug Drummond. Both are GOPers with Drummond a little more conservative than Colonna.

There are a couple hot council seats as well. I’ll report on them after the hoopla down south is over.… Read More

When the Governor gave his "I say build it" State of the State address, at least one legislator in that chamber apparently took those words to heart.

Senator George Runner (R-Lancaster), by introducing Senate Bill 1812, proposes to streamline the planning and environmental review process for Highways like State Route 138, which runs through San Bernardino County’s High Desert communities of Phelan and Pinon Hills and on into Palmdale in Los Angeles County. That particular highway is among Southern California’s most picturesque and unfortunately dangerous routes for everyone from skiers to truckers. Read about it here and here.

The fact that SB 1812 has moved out of the Senate Transportation and Housing Committee is big news for the hundreds of thousands of motorists who routinely brave the blind curves, dips and scarce passing lanes that characterize one of the state’s… Read More

If you live in the 50th Congressional District in San Diego County, or the 35th State Senate District in Orange County – today is your day to vote. Special elections are taking place today in both of these districts! Remember that the FlashReport recommends any Republican BUT Bilbray in CD 50, and a vote for Diane Harkey in SD 35. There is also a race underway for Mayor in the city of Long Beach — look for a special FR look at how that race goes in tomorrow issue, or maybe Thursday. The Governor today in unveiling a greenhouse-gas emission reduction plan in, of course, San Francisco. The FlashReport will spend much more time focusing on this proposal, but just on the face of it, given that the cornerstone of the plan involves regulation of business that will be quite costly, you have to ask yourself how one state out of 50 can engage in such an aggressive program unilaterally, and not expect… Read More

See attached invitation below for Tuesday nite Election Central.

This may be the first and last time I do this. FR Publisher and Big BloggerJon Fleischman, and therefore hisBaby Bloggers like me, have a general rule that we won’t post information in advance of events on these pages…and for good reason.

As Jon puts it, "we have a pretty steadfast policy of NOT promoting events. The reason is actually very simple. As soon as I publish something about an upcoming event, or attach an invitation to an email from me as publisher, I LITERALLY get bombarded with HUNDREDS of invitations to events. Everyone from the State GOP, candidates for state office, federal office, local office, even non-CA events, debates, rallies, women’s fed meetings, etc."

Sounds like loads of fun. With that said, I am going to make an exception, PLEASE NOTE, in this ONE case only, because 1) there is only one race in town, 2) there is only one election central tomorrow, and 3) the entire wheelbarrow full of Republican candidates in the 50th have been invited and will… Read More

UPDATE 8:10 pm: SurveyUSA poll…Thanks, Brandon Powers, for alerting us:

Busby 47 Roach 14 Bilbray 13 Kaloogian 9 Morrow 5 Uke 3

These numbers are tantalizingly close to Datamar’s, except for Busby, shown here within striking distance of the magic 50%. The reason is the sample. Here is the SurveyUSA explanation:

Datamar is relying on past voting history to determine who is a likely voter, including in its survey only voters who voted in both 2004 and 2002. SurveyUSA is relying on the stated intention and the stated passion of poll respondents to determine who is a likely voter. SurveyUSA’s likely voter model detects more enthusiasm among Democrats than among Republicans in CA 50. That is reflected in SurveyUSA’s voter-turnout model, and in the data we present here. Datamar shows 54% of likely voters to be Republican. SurveyUSA shows 45% of likely voters to be Republican. Datamar shows 32% of likely voters to be Democrat. SurveyUSA shows 37% of likely voters to be Democrat. Datamar shows 49% of likely voters to be male. SurveyUSA shows 51% of likely voters to be… Read More