UPDATE 8:10 pm: SurveyUSA poll…Thanks, Brandon Powers, for alerting us:

Busby 47 Roach 14 Bilbray 13 Kaloogian 9 Morrow 5 Uke 3

These numbers are tantalizingly close to Datamar’s, except for Busby, shown here within striking distance of the magic 50%. The reason is the sample. Here is the SurveyUSA explanation:

Datamar is relying on past voting history to determine who is a likely voter, including in its survey only voters who voted in both 2004 and 2002. SurveyUSA is relying on the stated intention and the stated passion of poll respondents to determine who is a likely voter. SurveyUSA’s likely voter model detects more enthusiasm among Democrats than among Republicans in CA 50. That is reflected in SurveyUSA’s voter-turnout model, and in the data we present here. Datamar shows 54% of likely voters to be Republican. SurveyUSA shows 45% of likely voters to be Republican. Datamar shows 32% of likely voters to be Democrat. SurveyUSA shows 37% of likely voters to be Democrat. Datamar shows 49% of likely voters to be male. SurveyUSA shows 51% of likely voters to be… Read More

At the top of today’s main page is a link to column written by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in today’s Wall Street Journal. In it, he basically calls for tough border-security measures but als a "a policy of compassion" towards those millions of illegal aliens who are already living in America. It’s worth a read as the opinion of California’s Governor matters a lot in this debate.

Also leading the main page is a reminder that the FlashReport has some recommendations for voters in San Diego’s 50th Congressional District and Orange County’s 35 State Senate District, where special elections will take place tomorrow. It is clear that LOW VOTER TURNOUT will be impacting both races.

If you’ve been following the 50th Congressional District race, there is a chance for you to get some notoriety on the FlashReport. One of our San Diego Correspondents, La Mesa Councilman Barry Jantz, is inviting FR Readers to weigh in with their PREDICTIONS. He writes: Pick the winner in the 50th…… Read More

At the top of today’s main page is a link to column written by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in today’s Wall Street Journal. In it, he basically calls for tough border-security measures but also for "a policy of compassion" towards those millions of illegal aliens who are already living in America. It’s worth a read as the opinion of California’s Governor matters a lot in this debate.

Also leading the main page is a reminder that the FlashReport has some recommendations for voters in San Diego’s 50th Congressional District and Orange County’s 35 State Senate District, where special elections will take place tomorrow. It is clear that LOW VOTER TURNOUT will be impacting both races.

If you’ve been following the 50th Congressional District race, there is a chance for you to get some notoriety on the FlashReport. One of our San Diego Correspondents, La Mesa Councilman Barry Jantz, is inviting FR Readers to weigh in with their PREDICTIONS. He writes:

**There is more – click the link**… Read More

ELECTION DAY IS TUESDAY – IT’S NOT OVER UNTIL 8PM

Over the last few days seemingly smart people have suggested to me that the race for the 35th Senate seat is over, done and in the bag. I like that they all say it is in the bag for Diane Harkey, but the fact is there is still an Election Day on Tuesday and anything can happen.

I will be the first to admit that absentee balloting is becoming the method of choice for campaigns and voters, especially in this series of special elections in OC. But Election Day is still a major factor and any campaign that concedes it is crazy.

Don’t forget to vote.

BILL JONES STILL SUCKS

I don’t want to recount all the ways, Bill Jones sucks. But I will highlight one that is evident today. When he was Secretary of State doing his best to avoid appearing like a Republican or taking any action to help Republicans he also made some really bad policy decisions. Chief among them was the ill-fated policy guidance he gave to California’s 58… Read More

Orange County has a 1/2 cent transportation sales tax called Measure M that was passed in 1990 and expires in 2011. It created the Orange County Transportation Authority and has greatly improved OC transportation infrastructure (and I say that as someone who voted against it).

Now, the OCTA has been preparing a draft ordinance for the November 2006 ballot that would extend Measure M for 30 years. A very good case can be made for Measure M’s renewal, and I’m open to being persuaded.

However, it’s hard to be persuaded when you see OCTA spending taxpayer monies on thinly-veiled marketing efforts to build support for Measure M.

Which is why were are lucky to have several elected officials on the OCTA Board of Directors who are exercising responsible stewardship on behalf of the taxpayers.

A couple of months ago, OCTA awarded a $1.5 million contract to Townsend, Raimundo for a three-part countywide "informational mailing" on the draft Measure M renewal… Read More

Click here to see Arnold Schwarzenegger’s second commercial of the season. This one is touting his image on environmental issues. Click here to see Arnold Schwarzenegger’s first commercial of the season.… Read More

In just about any race for office, the endorsement of the incumbent politician who is retired is usually coveted. Clearly one race where NO ONE wants the endorsement of the former incumbent is in the Special Election taking place in San Diego — after all, former Congressman Duke Cunningham is serving time in the federal pen for using his office to make millions to line his own pockets, while doling out government funds in returns.

One of the candidates in the race has managed to reach back to the conservative Congressman who represented the area BEFORE Cunningham — retired Congressman Ron Packard (pictured). Packard’s biggest claim to fame is that he actually won his first election as a write-in candidate. Now that is no longer recent history — as a matter of fact, it has been a long time since Packard served in Congress as all (though he served nearly two decades).

Anyways, Packard has endorsed businessman Eric Roach for this seat, and… Read More

Who the heck wrote that?… Speaking of anonymous blogging, I received a smart-aleck email the other day asking me if I receive a check every time I mention the SDPolitics blog. You may know that blog is run and written by a mystery person, but I find it a must read everyday. I often find breaking news and other tidbits that are worth posting, and when I do, I’m gonna give credit. Alternatively, SDPolitics several times has mentioned the FlashReport as the first source of something juicy. It’s mutual, apparently.

My answer back to the emailer: "It is professional courtesy to give credit where credit is due….I don’t see FR and SDPolitics being in competition, and I believe the mutual links drive readership at both sites."

By the way, I support Jon in his decision that these pages are attributed, and I wouldn’t have it any other way for myself…but it isa decision other bloggers need to make for themselves. Just call me… Read More