Posted by Jon Fleischman at 12:00 am on May 11, 2006 2 Comments
I was recently talking to seasoned Orange County political
consultant Matt Holder, and he shared with me a theory concerning
the recent, narrow loss of Diane Harkey to Assemblyman Tom Harman
in the special election in the 35th State Senate election.
Harkey’s consultant, Scott Hart, had pointed out that Tom Harman
had seen an unusually high margin of victory from asian
foreign-language voters in the district — primarily Vietnamese
voters — by a a very dramatic margin.
Holder’s theory is this — Harkey was depriving of an opportunity
to purchase an official ballot statement for the voter guide
produced and distributed by the Registrar of Voters because she was
spending too much of her personal money (dumb law). Harman
did have a statement, however, and it was sent to these households
translated into the language of choice preferred by each voter.
Did that make the difference? It was a factor said
well-respected pollster Adam Probolsky (who writes for this
site). Probolsky suggested as well not to underestimate the
impact of Harman’s ballot title — and that his being an elected
State Legislature would have had a… Read More