Publicly traded companies have certain ‘quiet periods’ when they cannot talk about their earnings and insiders can’t buy and sell stock. I am not advocating any sort of quiet period for politics but the idea does have merits for consultants like me. Here’s why:

On an average day I get asked 50 times by another consultants or voters or activists or member of the media what I think about any given candidates’ chances in the upcoming Primary Election. I am flattered that they respect my opinion and am glad to offer it when appropriate.

However, very often my opinion is mixed with hard knowledge of polling data. This often presents a dilemma for me, and other political professionals I presume. I never want to say anything bad about a client or their chances of success–even if I know they are going down in flames – I don’t want people to think I have no idea what I am talking about if I say super positive things simply in the name of loyalty.

So when you ask a political consultant how a client of is going to do – keep in mind that the answer might be more wishful thinking rather than a cold… Read More

Jill Buck is the Republican candidate for the 18th Assembly district. She is unopposed in the primary and will face either Alameda Fire Chief Bill McCammon or Mary Hayashi in the general. She sent this statement on immigration out today in an "insiders only" e-mail (I know that she considers FR readers campaign insiders, plus she said it was okay to post this!). Here’s this ex-Navy officer’s take on border control: While I was in my twenties, I gave birth to three children. Each pregnancy was more difficult than the last, and the third trimester was always a tremendous physical challenge. What does that have to do with illegal immigration? Simply this…if women who are about to give birth can cross the border illegally in order to bring a U.S. citizen into the world, then an Al Qaeda operative can cross the border illegally in order to take a U.S. citizen out of the world.… Read More

Maybe it’s just me, but I’m starting to hear more and more people—namely Democrats—complaining that the better schools in the better neighborhoods get the better, more senior teachers. Oakland City Council President Ignacio De La Fuente said it this morning in a debate he, Ron Dellums and Nancy Nadel had on the Ronn Owens show on KGO (all three are running for to replace Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown). It occurred to me that this issue might be the issue to cause a split between the Democrats in the legislature and the California Teachers Association.

There is always so much talk about “equalizing” school funding between schools, how about we “equalize” teacher experience between schools? The teachers’ union will have to stand up for the teachers with the most seniority (who you know don’t want to go teach in those yukky inner-city schools) and the Democrats will be torn between the CTA and the argument that students attending poor, inner-city schools are the ones who most need experienced teachers.… Read More

As FR readers know, there is now a vibrant primary gearing up for who will represent the former seat of "Duke" Cunningham in the next Congress. On June 6th, all voters will be asked to choose between Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off for the special election for the remaining months of Duke’s unexpired term. But GOPers only will also be able to choose their nominee to take on Francine Busby (again) this November with the announcement that conservative, wealthy businessman Bill Hauf will actively compete for the nomination.

The 50th Congressional District is home to a lot of conservative Republican voters. In the recent special election, roughly 70% of votes to GOP candidates went to conservative/reform minded candidates. Moderate former Congressman-turned-federal lobbyist Bilbray won the very crowded primary with about 15% of the total votes cast for Republicans. You can be sure that Bilbray beat out his nearest competitor, conservative businessman Eric Roach, because independent, Decline-to-State, and Democratic voters could ‘cross-over’ in the special and vote for Bilbray. It wouldn’t… Read More

As FR readers know, there is now a vibrant primary gearing up for who will represent the former seat of "Duke" Cunningham in the next Congress. On June 6th, all voters will be asked to choose between Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off for the special election for the remaining months of Duke’s unexpired term. But GOPers only will also be able to choose their nominee to take on Francine Busby (again) this November with the announcement that conservative, wealthy businessman Bill Hauf will actively compete for the nomination.

The 50th Congressional District is home to a lot of conservative Republican voters. In the recent special election, roughly 70% of votes to GOP candidates went to conservative/reform minded candidates. Moderate former Congressman-turned-federal lobbyist Bilbray won the very crowded primary with about 15% of the total votes cast for Republicans. You can be sure that Bilbray beat out his nearest competitor, conservative businessman Eric Roach, because independent, Decline-to-State, and Democratic voters could ‘cross-over’ in the special and vote for Bilbray. It wouldn’t… Read More

Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R-Irvine) is gifted with, shall we say, an interesting sense of humor. He also is rather prolific in writing about his unique experiences as a freshman member of the State Assembly on his website.

His latest posting was priceless, and simply must reprint an excerpt from it here, was part of a large post entitled, "Toilets and Taxes"…

…AB 2496 by John Laird (D-Santa Cruz), mandates ultra-low flow toilets and urinals that use even less water then the now infamous low-flow toilets in use today (is it illegal to flush twice?). Don’t look now, but, liberal fears aside, Big Government has walked right past our bedrooms and has planted itself firmly in our bathrooms. As I listened… Read More

Well, looks like Workers Comp reform is working and we have the economy to prove it. Pump $15 billion of WC savings back into job creation and you have the surge in revenue that the May budget revise showed this past week. Problem for Arnold is this: while the unions are battling to select their candidate in June, they won’t wait long before their cannons are out for him – and then its a long, miserable summer.

Repaying the "education community" and spending a breathtaking $133 billion won’t buy any love for Arnold in the upcoming election. The outrage we had at Gray Davis’ lousy $100 billion budget is but a distant memory. Conservatives have got to be shaking their heads at just how bloomin’ big the State budget has gotten. All this spendingmight give him 20 minutes or so to rest, but in the end, he’s got to define the unions before they define him and figure out a way to get conservatives out to vote in November. Both are a tall order. It’s the only way he can win in November. Do you believe in miracles?… Read More

"Two Elections, One Conservative Choice." This is the big print on the first piece of political mail that will hit the mailboxes of Republican voters in the 50th Congressional District in the campaign of conservative businessman Bill Hauf, who will today announce his official ‘entry’ into the race for the regular June primary for this heavily GOP Congressional District occupied until late last year by former Congressman/now-convict Duke Cunningham. You can check out the mail piece by clicking the link to it at the bottom of this column. In April, a host of GOP candidates duked it out in the Special Election ‘primary’ and former Congressman now Federal lobbyist Brian Bilbray, with about 15% of the GOP vote in that dust-up, earned the honors to go up against Democrat Francine Busby in June. But this special election run-off is on the same ballot as the regular primary, where all of the GOP candidates who appeared on the special election ballot last month once-again appear. Bill Hauf, who had a poor showing in that April election (less than 2%) has decided to run in the regular primary. Hauf… Read More