In the 74th Assembly District Primary race between Garrick (Coronado Communications), Waldron (GilliardBlanningWysocki), and Packard (self) a ‘strategy’ memorandum from Waldron’s campaign consultants, obviously unintentionally made public, has been circulating over the past week. The contents clearly demonstrate exactly why every political consultant cringes at the thought of their honest strategic and tactical thoughts being made public.

The memorandum details the results of what must have been rather disheartening Waldron polling. “We have our work cut out for us” the memo states in the first paragraph. Generally, this is not the kind of encouragement a candidate who is considering sinking 100k of their own money into a race likes to hear.

It then goes on to describe in agonizing detail that Waldron’s Escondido base, where she has been a councilwoman for a fair number of years, is not a base after all. In fact Waldron’s positives in Escondido, the only place she currently has significant name identification, are 16.2%. Not bad until you read further and see Waldron’s negatives are 21.6%. In her hometown. The… Read More

I’ve known Shawn and Michelle Steel since 1988. Both have been kind any generous to me over the years. In fact, Shawn played a key role as a mentor and a role-model for me back in my college days when I was an activist and a leader in Young Americans for Freedom, Shawn having served as State Co-Chairman of Cal-YAF with Dana Rohrabacher back in the day. This year, Michelle is running for the State Board of Equalization. She would make a fine board-member. Ironically (and inconveniently for many people, including myself) another strong conservative, Ray Haynes, is also running in the same race for BOE. I’ve known Ray since 1990 and also consider him a close friend. Ray has been in the legislature for many years, and has been a consistent voice of sanity in the liberal chaos that dominates the State Capitol.

I penned an early analysis of this Haynes/Steel donnybrook back in August of last year, and in that… Read More

For those of you who got a chuckle at Chuck DeVore’s ribbing of bill by Democratic Assemblyman Laird of Santa Cruz to mandate what kind of toilets private property owners install in their own homes, here’s a more serious afternote — five REPUBLICAN legislators voted FOR the bill.

I would invite "on the record" comment from Assemblymembers Sam Blakeslee, Lynn Daucher, Bill Emmerson, Tom Harman, and Shirley Horton.

Perhaps we can direct these folks to Republican Party’s platform that is pretty clear about where the GOP stands on private property rights. A state government mandate about the kind of toilet someone can put in their home may sound like a minor issue, but if government has a right to tell you the kind of toilet you use to force you to conserve water, then why not a law limiting the size of a home, to save on power bills? Or a law limiting the use of sharp knives in a home to limit potential injuries?

Water conservation is important. But there… Read More

Last fall, I wrote a posting for this website wondering if the Schwarzenegger campaign had put Democratic Assemblyman Paul Koretz on their payroll. Koretz had not only proposed a moratorium in the death penalty on California, but offered an explanation that was mind-boggling in its avoidance of the realities of public safety, politics and governance. His reasoning? ” “There are people who are pure as the driven snow who are on death row. ” http://www.flashreport.org/blog0a.php?postID=3D2005121413581818&post_offs etP=3D15&authID=3D2005091915380734

Schwarzenegger’s political situation has improved considerably in the last six months, and Koretz’ efforts to shore up support for the governor among GOP faithful has since been joined by the Alameda Superior Court judge who threw out the state’s high school exit exam last week. But as we all know, Republican efforts to maintain a majority in Congress have suffered some setbacks recently, as disillusioned conservatives watch federal government spending continue to spiral out of control. Added to concerns relating to illegal immigration, Iraq, gasoline prices,… Read More

Rep. McKinney is famous or rather infamous for her recent attack on a Capitol Hill Police Officer. Recently Los Angeles Councilwoman Janice Hahn may have been in a scuffle with a security guard trying to keep the lid on unruly labor union protesters. The protesters want to ruin the LAX hotel area by subjugating allhotel wokers to their union bosses whims.

While it doesn’t really rise to the craziness of the McKinney affair, it shows how pandering some council members are to unions no matter the consequences. See article here.… Read More

In California Political Review Online, Bill Saracino (an author always worth reading) looks at two hotly contested GOP primaries, posting an outstanding piece, "The Goldwater dictum," and asks the questions that only June 6 will answer….

Saracino reminds us of Senator Barry Goldwater, withdrawing his name from nomination at the 1960 Republican National Convention: “Let’s grow up conservatives. We want to take this Party back, and I think someday we can. Let’s get to work."Saracino continues:

Conservative political acumen will be tested in two Assembly Primaries June 6: those in the 59th and 77th A.D.s. Do conservatives have their act together? Or will they continue to allow internecine warfare to elect liberals in solidly conservative districts? These elections will tell.

I’ll let someone else weigh in on the 59th, if Saracino’s piece… Read More

Publicly traded companies have certain ‘quiet periods’ when they cannot talk about their earnings and insiders can’t buy and sell stock. I am not advocating any sort of quiet period for politics but the idea does have merits for consultants like me. Here’s why:

On an average day I get asked 50 times by another consultants or voters or activists or member of the media what I think about any given candidates’ chances in the upcoming Primary Election. I am flattered that they respect my opinion and am glad to offer it when appropriate.

However, very often my opinion is mixed with hard knowledge of polling data. This often presents a dilemma for me, and other political professionals I presume. I never want to say anything bad about a client or their chances of success–even if I know they are going down in flames – I don’t want people to think I have no idea what I am talking about if I say super positive things simply in the name of loyalty.

So when you ask a political consultant how a client of is going to do – keep in mind that the answer might be more wishful thinking rather than a cold… Read More

Jill Buck is the Republican candidate for the 18th Assembly district. She is unopposed in the primary and will face either Alameda Fire Chief Bill McCammon or Mary Hayashi in the general. She sent this statement on immigration out today in an "insiders only" e-mail (I know that she considers FR readers campaign insiders, plus she said it was okay to post this!). Here’s this ex-Navy officer’s take on border control: While I was in my twenties, I gave birth to three children. Each pregnancy was more difficult than the last, and the third trimester was always a tremendous physical challenge. What does that have to do with illegal immigration? Simply this…if women who are about to give birth can cross the border illegally in order to bring a U.S. citizen into the world, then an Al Qaeda operative can cross the border illegally in order to take a U.S. citizen out of the world.… Read More