It’s overcast and starting to rain in San Diego County, at least downtown. Not too many rainy days in the year here. If the rain picks up, expect turnout to drop. And more pile ups on the freeways, of course.… Read More

Oakland voters go to the polls today to choose their new mayor. I’m betting that it will be a run-off between City Council President Ignacio DeLaFuente and former Congressman Ron Dellums. I’d love to see DeLaFuente get enough votes to prevent a run off, but I’m guessing that there are enough wackos in my city to help Dellums make it into a November run off.

In the last days of the campaign, I received several phone calls in support of DeLaFuente, including one from the current mayor, Jerry Brown. But the most fascinating political marketing call I received was this message left on my phone over the weekend. It was a woman’s voice reading the following script:

“Ron Dellums left office 8 years ago to become a… Read More

There are loads of hot races here in Orange County, and with our 21st Century Registrar of Voters doing his utmost to feed our appetite for results it shouldn’t be too late an election night (barring another Diane Harkey/Tom Harman-esque squeaker).

I’m running the traditional predictions contest on OC Blog, but I’ll post my own prognostications on the competitive races here:

2nd Supervisor District: OC Treasurer John Moorlach trounces government union proxy Dave Shawver by 20 points.

5th Supervisor District: Pat Bates edges Cassie DeYoung out for first place (both in the low 40s), but it goes to a November run-off.

67th… Read More

Deal or No Deal?… I said I would get some flak for blogging the Horn-Thompson Supe Survey a few days ago. John Nienstedt, of the very credible (unlike, perhaps, the anon numbers I posted) Competitive Edge Research & Communication, sends alongthis appropo missive:

Barry, Barry, Barry: Yeah I’ll give you some flak. Last I checkedThompson’s employment designation isn’t "businessman," its "regionalbusiness administrator." Why does that matter? Because no self-respectingpollster (or pollster who deserves respect) would screw that up.

So bear with me now: backing the unsures out of Q3, this poll is sayingthat Thompson should win with 65% of the vote. Now, the margin of samplingerror on that question for a sample size of 377 (taking into account thatwe’re backing out the unsures) is plus or minus 4.8%. That means that, if Thompson gets less than 60% of the… Read More

Today is election day! Have you remembered to vote? I’m going to go vote right after I finish up this commentary.

There is a practice within the main stream media to pretty much stop election coverage in the final couple of days before the election, with some notable exceptions. I think that the idea behind this is that at a certain point, it becomes too late for anyone to contest or disagree with the analysis of a newspaper or a TV station, and that it may just seem a bit unfair to weigh into races in the final days/hours. That said, there are a few stories on the main page worth a read, on individual races. Today we have featured a column from Sacramento Bee ace columnist Dan Weintraub, who pens a piece on what the various ‘hot spots’ are around the state, providing a ‘guide’ to follow election day results. Definitely worth a read. In the "Golden Pen" today is a must-read column from the Wall Street Journal’s Brendan Miniter on the lessons of the Congressional District 50 special election. An excerpt:… Read More

I’ve checked the parking lot a few times today at Richvale Elementary and NOBODY is showing up to vote. I’m very concerned that Nor Cal voters are not engaged. Phil and Steve are boring my voters to death! Oh, wait a minute……. er, I forgot, Richvale, Pop. 250,is now entirely a mail-in precinct as its not populated enough. Oh well,SNL’sGilda RadnerwouldhaveEmilyLitella say"Never mind!"… Read More

Today is election day! Have you remembered to vote? I’m going to go vote right after I finish up this commentary.

There is a practice within the main stream media to pretty much stop election coverage in the final couple of days before the election, with some notable exceptions. I think that the idea behind this is that at a certain point, it becomes too late for anyone to contest or disagree with the analysis of a newspaper or a TV station, and that it may just seem a bit unfair to weigh into races in the final days/hours. That said, there are a few stories on the main page worth a read, on individual races. Today we have featured a column from Sacramento Bee ace columnist Dan Weintraub, who pens a piece on what the various ‘hot spots’ are around the state, providing a ‘guide’ to follow election day results. Definitely worth a read. In the "Golden Pen" today is a must-read column from the Wall Street Journal’s Brendan Miniter on the lessons of the Congressional District 50 special election. An excerpt:… Read More

RC’s ace reporter on things going on out here in the West penned this piece in today’s Roll Call Newspaper: Parties on Edge in California By David M. Drucker Roll Call Staff The wild special election to replace former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R) in California’s 50th district comes to a head today, and the outcome will have broad implications in the battle for the House and on the role issues such as illegal immigration and ethics might play in the fall.… Read More