Deal or No Deal?… I said I would get some flak for blogging the Horn-Thompson Supe Survey a few days ago. John Nienstedt, of the very credible (unlike, perhaps, the anon numbers I posted) Competitive Edge Research & Communication, sends alongthis appropo missive:

Barry, Barry, Barry: Yeah I’ll give you some flak. Last I checkedThompson’s employment designation isn’t "businessman," its "regionalbusiness administrator." Why does that matter? Because no self-respectingpollster (or pollster who deserves respect) would screw that up.

So bear with me now: backing the unsures out of Q3, this poll is sayingthat Thompson should win with 65% of the vote. Now, the margin of samplingerror on that question for a sample size of 377 (taking into account thatwe’re backing out the unsures) is plus or minus 4.8%. That means that, if Thompson gets less than 60% of the… Read More

Today is election day! Have you remembered to vote? I’m going to go vote right after I finish up this commentary.

There is a practice within the main stream media to pretty much stop election coverage in the final couple of days before the election, with some notable exceptions. I think that the idea behind this is that at a certain point, it becomes too late for anyone to contest or disagree with the analysis of a newspaper or a TV station, and that it may just seem a bit unfair to weigh into races in the final days/hours. That said, there are a few stories on the main page worth a read, on individual races. Today we have featured a column from Sacramento Bee ace columnist Dan Weintraub, who pens a piece on what the various ‘hot spots’ are around the state, providing a ‘guide’ to follow election day results. Definitely worth a read. In the "Golden Pen" today is a must-read column from the Wall Street Journal’s Brendan Miniter on the lessons of the Congressional District 50 special election. An excerpt:… Read More

RC’s ace reporter on things going on out here in the West penned this piece in today’s Roll Call Newspaper: Parties on Edge in California By David M. Drucker Roll Call Staff The wild special election to replace former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R) in California’s 50th district comes to a head today, and the outcome will have broad implications in the battle for the House and on the role issues such as illegal immigration and ethics might play in the fall.… Read More

I know everyone can hardly wait to see if Keith Richman or Claude Parrishbecomes the GOPTreasurer nominee.

But in LA County We got other stuff going on.

Judges: Everyone has trouble figuring out judges. Below are Conservative LA County Sup Mike Antonovich’s picks. Other sources are LA GOP DA Steve Cooleyor Robyn Nordell’s great site.

Long Beach: Is picking a Mayor. Look like the Dems will pick this one up. You can read the most recent article on the race here.People have to vote twice!See my last post with links here. Torrance: Will Dan Walker survive? this is a hotly contested race. My takes are here.Vote Rod Guyton for Council.

Sheriff: Lee Baca needs to… Read More

The 2006 Republican Primary in the 65th Assembly District could go down as one of the dirtiest and most expensive primaries ever. In fact, I see it as a virtual case study on what’s wrong with gerrymandering: the major parties beat themselves senseless and broke during primaries and don’t ever face the opposing party to debate what’s best for the state. In this five-way contest, it’s about who’s the most against illegal immigration, and who’s the most against taxes. Then there are the lies, distortions, exaggerations, insults, accusations, character assassination and cheating that help define what a great species human beings really are.

How special this race has been. Anyway, now it’s time to speculate about what the results are going to look like tonight, based on limited information and partial analysis. First, the fundraising totals. San Jacinto Councilman Jim Ayres leads the field, having raised $472,804. Hemet Mayor Robin Lowe took in $395,159. Banning Councilwoman… Read More

It’s overcast and starting to rain in San Diego County, at least downtown. Not too many rainy days in the year here. If the rain picks up, expect turnout to drop. And more pile ups on the freeways, of course.… Read More

The Schwarzenegger campaign insists they have no preference on which Democratic candidate for govenor ends up as their opponent. In truth, they’ll probably be able to run pretty much the same campaign against either Phil Angelides or Steve Westly.

But running against Angelides would be so much more fun.

Today’s Sacramento Bee reports on the anti-Arnold’s visit to an African-American congregation in East Oakland, where he promised the attendees that "wants to create a California ‘where the governor stands side by side with people like Barbara Lee, whether it’s the genocide in Darfur or the horrible war in Iraq."

Putting aside for a moment the lack of foreign policy decision-making in a governor’s portfolio, Angelides just promised the people of the state that he "stands side by side" with the only member of the House of Representatives who, on September 15, 2001, voted against authorizing the use of military force against those responsible for the terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon four days earlier.

I don’t know of anyone who’s in favor… Read More

The Orange County Registrar of Voter‘s office used to be a statewide embarrassment. Every Election Night, eager politicos waited for the excruciatingly slow county election bureaucracy to tabulate the results. It wasn‘t unusual to wait until lat at night just to get the first round of absentee voters. It was like the tabulating was being done in "bullet time" — which is cool in The Matrix but not cool when waiting on the outcome of elections.

All that began changing rapidly with the accession of Neal Kelley as first Acting OC Registrar, and now as the permanent OC Registrar of Voters. Kelley is busily bringing his office into the 21st Century.

You can watch ballot boxes bring brought into the OC Registrar‘s on the… Read More