Bilbray Heartens the GOP – WSJ’s Political Diary

Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief. With some 40,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted, moderate former GOP Congressman Brian Bilbray won a much-watched special election in San Diego yesterday. Mr. Bilbray won 50% of the vote to Democrat Francine Busby’s 45%. Should those numbers hold through the absentee count, it will mean that Ms. Busby won only the base Democratic vote in the district — John Kerry won 44% there in 2004.

What makes the Bilbray victory noteworthy is that he was a weak candidate, having won a divided GOP primary with only 15% of the vote and losing 5% of yesterday’s vote to right-wing third party candidates. Even the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, which spent an unheard-of $4.5 million on his behalf, noted this morning that Republicans… Read More

Since we don’t have a central coast blogger right now, I’m going to pick up the slack and report on Ventura County’s hotly contested Supervisorial race. The district includes the cities of Simi Valley and Moorepark. Republican Judy Mikels was the three term incumbant in this GOP dominant district. Mikels, who challanged Tom McClintock unsuccessfully in 2000 for State Senate, was seen as somewhat vulnerable because of her ties to unpopular local development projects and an ongoing rumor that she actually lived out of state. Populist Democrat Jim Dantona declared against her nearly a year ago and was rrunning a well funded aggresive campaign but the general feeling among many insiders was that party registration alone would probably save Mikels. Enter conservative Republican Peter Foy, who literally decided to run and filed on the deadline. Local media reported Foy as a ‘spoiler’ set up to run by local conservatives who disliked Mikels in order to make sure Dantona came in first in the run-off against Mikels. Most of the coverage treated him as a secondary candidate, with the big show being the increasingly bitter and savage Dantona… Read More

In a press release, which characterizes an NBC report which aired Wednesdayas "false," Congressman Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands) issued the following statement in response to the report:

"I have never recommended a lobbyist to any constituent, contractor or anyone seeking federal funds. I have absolutely never told anyone to provide ‘stock options’ or any other sort of compensation to someone who is their advisor or lobbyist. To do so would be extremely unethical, and it goes entirely against all of my principles of good governing.

"It is outrageous and false to suggest that I might have supported a program in order to provide some illicit benefit for a friend. This technology was primarily supported by the two Congressmen who represented the area, and had been endorsed by top members of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee – including the Democratic chairman. Although I was a junior minority member of the subcommittee at the time, I felt it was worthwhile to join in that support because the technology appeared to have promise.

"All of this information was provided to NBC in detail, and I am… Read More

There were several elections in LA on Tuesday. See here.Lee Baca was easily re-elected Sheriff despite a litany of failures. See here.

In Torrance Dan Walker was easily defeated as anti-development fever siezed control. Unfortunately Good Guy Rod Guyton fell victim as well. See news article here.

Long Beach went Demo with the win of SCE former Exec Bob Foster. See article here

Also John "Lower Taxes" Loew only got about 22% of the vote for Assesor.

As I wrote a while back about "Foreign" sounding names. (See here)Sitting judge Dzintra Janavs was upset by an unqualified rated Bagel Shop owner Lynn Olsen.

CRA Endorsed Glenn Forsch… Read More

As mentioned earlier, in San Bernardino County’s four-way race for Assessor Tuesday, challenger Bill Postmus, Chairman of the Board of Supervisors, captured more than 46 percent of the vote in his first countywide bid. The incumbent, Don Williamson, ran a distant second finishing nearly 13 points behind. As I’ve also said, a key factor in this result was the presence of two other candidates in the primary, who combined to take about 20 percent of the vote.

It’s important to again emphasize the significance of Postmus’ accomplishment in this race, and how strongly he is positioned for November:

1. Roughly two-thirds of the votes cast for Assessor were for someone other than the incumbent.

2. No incumbent who placed second in a San Bernardino County primary has ever won the runoff. As a general rule, in runoff elections more of the remaining votes against the incumbent tend to go to the remaining challenger.

3. Even Williamson’s razor-thin re-election margin four years ago illustrated his weakness. In the… Read More

Big congratulations to Sacto based political consultant Tab Berg for his win with retired Marine Colonel/Town of Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook in the GOP Primary for the 65th AD.

I was Cook’s pollster and have been proud to work for Col. Cook–a true American Hero.

A funny piece of full disclosure–before signing on to do the polling for Cook I had made a financial contribution to one of Cook’s opponents–Jim Ayres. It was at the urging of a friend, I had never met San Jacinto Councilman Ayres.

So while I am confident my polling was good and accurate and helped Tab develop strategy and targeting, I guess you could say Cook won despite me.

Note: I disclosed my contribution to the Cook campaign before being hired and we agreed it didn’t make a difference and it didn’t.… Read More

Orange County had no Congressional contests…

Orange County State Senate races included just one to speak of…the 34th Dem Primary with Assemblyman Tom Umberg v. County Supervisor Lou Correa. Correa won with an 18% margin. Correa owes a big thank you to Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata. This means Republicans get another shot at taking back Correa’s sup seat sometime next year in a Special Election. Correa will face off against Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher who won the GOP nomination.

Orange County State Assembly races included GOP Primaries in the 72nd (Duvall a GBWA client trounced Siminoff a Nygren client). In the 67th (Silva a GBWA client beat McGill and Harman a Coronado Communications client).

In the 69th Dem Primary (Solorio won with a HUGE margin over Alvarez).

OC Treasurer John Moorlach won a seat on the county board of supervisors. Former Assemblywoman Pat Bates fought off a over 2.5 MILLION dollars to be the top vote getter over her very wealthy self-funded opponent.

Sheriff Mike Carona pulled off a 50.9% victory over three rivals. This is an impressive win for the consulting team of Sen. John Lewis… Read More

Updated: 7:00 p.m.

Tuesday’selection in San Bernardino County was characterized by a staggeringly low voter turnout, despite the dogged efforts of many campaigns to stir voters’ interest. Countywide, voter turnout was abysmal at 21.97%. Democratic turnout narrowly exceeded that of Republicans because of several competitive legislative and statewide primaries.

The highest profile candidate in the county, Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Postmus, is running for the countywide office of Assessor. While he made a strong showing with 46.2 percent of the vote, he wasn’t able to avoid a runoff against 12-year incumbent Donald Williamson, who received 33.68 percent of the vote. The main factor forcing a runoff was the presence of two additional candidates on the ballot. Two appraisers from the Assessor’s office filed papers to run after the incumbent had announced his retirement. But when Williamson filed for re-election at the last minute, it was too late for his two subordinates to get out of the race. The result: Williamson’s underlings pulled almost 20 percent of the vote, making a… Read More