There’s only one unsettled race left in Orange County after Tuesday’s primary election: the 5th Supervisor District, which goes to a November run-off between Pat Bates and Cassie DeYoung. Pat took 44.3% on Tuesday to DeYoung’s 36.7%.

Both campaigns say transportation will be a central issue of the campaign, meaning much Cassie DeYoung Chicken Little-ism over the Terrible Tunnel. During the primary campaign, DeYoung attempt to make an issue out of Cong. Ken Calvert’s support for studying a possible tunnel underneath the Santa Ana Mountains connecting Orange and Riverside counties. Pat Bates supports studying whether a tunnel is even technically feasible before making a decision whether or not to build it.

I’ve blogged elsewhere of my free-floating anxiety about the collateral impact DeYoung’s demonization of the tunnel project might have on the resolve of other politicians who favor building, or at least studying, a mutli-use tunnel through the Santa Ana Mountains.

Take, for example, this Los Angeles Times… Read More

[Today’s Daily Commentary has been penned by Barry Jantz, one of the FlashReport’s San Diego County Correspondents, and is his take on last Tuesday’s Special Election in the 50th Congressional District.]

When it was all said and done, the only thing that may have really mattered was the only thing that had at the start. No amount of pontification, money, mudslinging, Duke Cunningham fallout, or national attention was going to change the fact that California’s 50th Congressional District is home to significantly more registered Republicans than Democrats. To be exact, 44 to 30 percent, with a slew of independents.

The 50th is a Republican district, pure and simple. The political term is a safe seat. The district was drawn that way, whether one detests the reapportionment process or not. The common wisdom is that Democrats don’t… Read More

When it was all said and done, the only thing that may have really mattered was the only thing that had at the start. No amount of pontification, money, mudslinging, Duke Cunningham fallout, or national attention was going to change the fact that California’s 50th Congressional District is home to significantly more registered Republicans than Democrats. To be exact, 44 to 30 percent, with a slew of independents.

The 50th is a Republican district, pure and simple. The political term is a safe seat. The district was drawn that way, whether one detests the reapportionment process or not. The common wisdom is that Democrats don’t win seats like this, as in “it will never happen.” No more of a chance than a Republican ever taking a seat like Bob Filner’s nearby 51st district, a long-term haven for any Democrat winning the Party primary.

That is the cold, perhaps ugly reality of politically-motivated gerrymandering. As we know, the Constitution mandates the occasional redrawing of political lines… Read More

I written a few pieces on Jim Leford, the Mayor of palmdale that challenged Sharon Runner. He hid his donors. See here. He supports Deomcrats for office. See here .He supported tripling the car tax. See here. He attacked Sharon , the co-author of Jessica’s Law of being soft on sex offenders See here. The Good news he he lost and even lost Palmdale. See article here.Just wait until 2008.… Read More

As mentioned earlier, in San Bernardino County’s four-way race for Assessor Tuesday, challenger Bill Postmus, Chairman of the Board of Supervisors, captured more than 46 percent of the vote in his first countywide bid. The incumbent, Don Williamson, ran a distant second finishing nearly 13 points behind. As I’ve also said, a key factor in this result was the presence of two other candidates in the primary, who combined to take about 20 percent of the vote.

It’s important to again emphasize the significance of Postmus’ accomplishment in this race, and how strongly he is positioned for November:

1. Roughly two-thirds of the votes cast for Assessor were for someone other than the incumbent.

2. No incumbent who placed second in a San Bernardino County primary has ever won the runoff. As a general rule, in runoff elections more of the remaining votes against the incumbent tend to go to the remaining challenger.

3. Even Williamson’s razor-thin re-election margin four years ago illustrated his weakness. In the… Read More

Big congratulations to Sacto based political consultant Tab Berg for his win with retired Marine Colonel/Town of Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook in the GOP Primary for the 65th AD.

I was Cook’s pollster and have been proud to work for Col. Cook–a true American Hero.

A funny piece of full disclosure–before signing on to do the polling for Cook I had made a financial contribution to one of Cook’s opponents–Jim Ayres. It was at the urging of a friend, I had never met San Jacinto Councilman Ayres.

So while I am confident my polling was good and accurate and helped Tab develop strategy and targeting, I guess you could say Cook won despite me.

Note: I disclosed my contribution to the Cook campaign before being hired and we agreed it didn’t make a difference and it didn’t.… Read More

Orange County had no Congressional contests…

Orange County State Senate races included just one to speak of…the 34th Dem Primary with Assemblyman Tom Umberg v. County Supervisor Lou Correa. Correa won with an 18% margin. Correa owes a big thank you to Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata. This means Republicans get another shot at taking back Correa’s sup seat sometime next year in a Special Election. Correa will face off against Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher who won the GOP nomination.

Orange County State Assembly races included GOP Primaries in the 72nd (Duvall a GBWA client trounced Siminoff a Nygren client). In the 67th (Silva a GBWA client beat McGill and Harman a Coronado Communications client).

In the 69th Dem Primary (Solorio won with a HUGE margin over Alvarez).

OC Treasurer John Moorlach won a seat on the county board of supervisors. Former Assemblywoman Pat Bates fought off a over 2.5 MILLION dollars to be the top vote getter over her very wealthy self-funded opponent.

Sheriff Mike Carona pulled off a 50.9% victory over three rivals. This is an impressive win for the consulting team of Sen. John Lewis… Read More

Updated: 7:00 p.m.

Tuesday’selection in San Bernardino County was characterized by a staggeringly low voter turnout, despite the dogged efforts of many campaigns to stir voters’ interest. Countywide, voter turnout was abysmal at 21.97%. Democratic turnout narrowly exceeded that of Republicans because of several competitive legislative and statewide primaries.

The highest profile candidate in the county, Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Postmus, is running for the countywide office of Assessor. While he made a strong showing with 46.2 percent of the vote, he wasn’t able to avoid a runoff against 12-year incumbent Donald Williamson, who received 33.68 percent of the vote. The main factor forcing a runoff was the presence of two additional candidates on the ballot. Two appraisers from the Assessor’s office filed papers to run after the incumbent had announced his retirement. But when Williamson filed for re-election at the last minute, it was too late for his two subordinates to get out of the race. The result: Williamson’s underlings pulled almost 20 percent of the vote, making a… Read More