At any point in a campaign its important to be in the lead. In July, in a Statewide race for California Governor, a leaddoesn’t mean much as a predictor of a final outcome. We still have most of the playing field to travel, and much can happen over the next three months. Its especially important to lead a race at this stage to facilitate the raising of money. Big Donors and other groups are front-runners – they like to give to the leading candidate far more than the one trailing. Sp Arnold’s lead presently is mostly about maintaining a solid fundraising effort, which he appears to be doing.

While I still don’t see or feel any real energy in the GOP base the Democrats are angrier than ever – and demoralized. I have yet to meet a Democrat that sincerely believes Angelides can win. They are clearly not energized.

In the final analysis one would rather be ahead than behind. But predicting an outcome in this race is like predicting who will win the National League West this year in baseball – too early to tell. Arnold’s chances have risen from 40-60 to even money over the last few weeks. He’s got… Read More

San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Postmus on Thursday placed on the Board’s August 1 agenda a proposed ballot measure to prohibit the County from seizing private property for private use, while the Board’s Vice-Chairman, Paul Biane, is offering another ballot measure to place term limits on supervisors and revise their pay scale upward to attract better candidates.

Postmus’ eminent domain restriction is similar to the one passed in June by Orange County voters. Eminent domain abuse has been a nationwide subject of concern since last year when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that local governments could seize land to be used for private development. In Kelo v. City of New London, 125 S. Ct. 2655 (2005), the Court upheld a Connecticut law that allows local governmental entities to exercise the power of eminent domain for so-called “economic development” purposes.

“The Supreme Court said that local governments can seize your property and give it to a private developer,” said Postmus. “That’s not right. The fact that a piece of property might generate more tax revenue under another use shouldn’t give… Read More

The other day I had coffee with an un-named gentleman who has been in California and national politics since probably the 1950’s. He looked over his coffee (black, thank the Lord) and noted that when he was in his 30’s most business was done in smoky, more whiskey and gin laden atmospheres. And that he thought the more social aspect of politics in years gone by also lubricated the actual getting of things done. He also mentioned the particular formula of his favorite drink – a gin martini.

Having made the wide-awake at midnight, knot in the stomach promise to that self-same deity above that if I won a particular race or two in June I would run 3 miles a day or so and drink nothing but beer as a shield against boring conversation, until the quickening of the November Election and my return to San Diego’s dread Alby’s, the recipe of this un-named gentleman’s martini interested me. From time to time, before my pledge, you see, I was inclined to order a gin myself.

Anyway, so this was on my mind as I was reading “Casino Royale” which I believe to be the first James Bond novel (Ian Fleming, 1953). And on page 40 there… Read More

Senator Tom Harman narrowly won (by less than 300 votes) his Special Election contest earlier this year against Dana Point Councilwoman Diane Harkey (a Probolsky client).

Now it seems that he is trying to reach out to the community by hiring some known quantities like Councilman Mark Leyes and Cynthia Determan, a former Morrow staffer.

I have been an outspoken critic of the Senator in the past, given his electoral success has come at the expense of the GOP Primary process twice (he was first elected in the one ‘open primary’ that was later deemed illegal) and this last time won in a Special winner-take-all Election.

But I am keeping an open mind with my new Senator and his staff choices seem to indicate that he is too. Leyes is a well known conservative leader in his city and countywide. I also credit Duane Dichiara of Coronado Communications (his consultants) with helping Senator Harman reach out to parts of the party that have not traditionally been supportive of the Senator.

I… Read More

As someone who strongly supported Arnold Schwarzenegger for Governor in the 2003 special recall election, and as someone who has endorsed and supports Schwarzenegger for re-election this year, I was extremely frustrated to read this quote attributed to the Governor today in several major newspapers, when he was questioned by opponents of illegal immigration at a campaign stop yesterday in La Mesa in San Diego County:

While I certainly am ‘mad’ at the federal government for not securing our borders, why in Earth would I NOT get mad at "anyone" trying to come into this country, if they are coming here in violation of the law? Such a statement has as its natural extention that there is no moral relevence between those who legally immigrate into America, following our nation’s laws, versus those who sneak/smuggle/trespass into America by flaunting or ignoring our laws.

Let me be… Read More

Congressmen Devin Nunes, representing California’s 21st District, is stepping up to the plate on an energy bill that would service to provide great supply and a solid movement toward energy independence. An article in the Wall Street Journal today explains the program and frankly, its got a creative touch to it not often seen in new legislation. The measure creates an "Energy Independence Trust Fund" to receive oil and gas royalties from the oil companies once the energy is pulled out of the ground. Of course, Congress being what it is, there has to be ironclad rules against stealing (Congress calls this "borrowing") the cash out of this fund.

Its time now for Nunes and other young, articulate and energetic Members of Congress to step up on the immigration issue and develop a lasting solution that deals with the lack of federal government infrastructure to handle either a guest worker or deportation program.

The full article appears below: Congress Talks Up Alternative… Read More

As someone who strongly supported Arnold Schwarzenegger for Governor in the 2003 special recall election, and as someone who has endorsed and supports Schwarzenegger for re-election this year, I was extremely frustrated to read this quote attributed to the Governor today in several major newspapers, when he was questioned by opponents of illegal immigration at a campaign stop yesterday in La Mesa in San Diego County:

While I certainly am ‘mad’ at the federal government for not securing our borders, why in Earth would I NOT get mad at "anyone" trying to come into this country, if they are coming here in violation of the law? Such a statement has as its natural extention that there is no moral relevence between those who legally immigrate into America, following our nation’s laws, versus those who sneak/smuggle/trespass into America by flaunting or ignoring our laws.

Let me… Read More

Takes One to Know One

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has made his clearest statement yet that he isn’t going to use illegal immigration as a campaign issue this year. He told a Spanish language newspaper that his support for the anti-illegal immigrant Proposition 187 back in 1994 was "wrong" and refused to repeat his earlier praise of the Minutemen, a group of private citizens who have set themselves up as guardians of the U.S.-Mexico border.

San Jose State political scientist Larry Gerston said the governor is trying to appeal to centrists without alienating his conservative base. "Where are the conservatives going to go? They’re either going to Arnold Schwarzenegger or they’re going to sit it out. You weigh that against accommodating votes not only… Read More