Top two primary makes recruiting GOP candidates tougher — and puts Lady Luck in charge
It sounded so nice. The top performing candidates, regardless of party, would move past the primary to the general election. “The people” would be empowered to choose the candidates they like best, and the power of “party bosses” further diminished.
As we head into the 2018 elections in California, this quaint idea is creating even bigger challenges for Republicans.
To recruit quality candidates, prospective contenders need to believe they have a reasonable shot of at least making it to the November ballot. In the past, November voters were guaranteed the ability to choose among each party’s nominee. Now, there is no assurance at all that at least one candidate from each party can even make it past the primary.
This is due to the combined effects of the top two primary, Republicans being the statewide minority party, and a dose of game theory.
Let’s take a look at statewide offices, where last week San Diego Republican Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who would far and away be the strongest contender for governor, bowed out.
This point is key to understanding the statewide dynamic: For most statewide offices, many voters never get to… Read More