When you play poker, the expression "all in" refers to when a player takes all of the chips in front of them, and pushes them all to the center of the table. It means that everything comes down to one hand. If you win, you win big. You win it all. If you lose, then you lose everything with which you came to the table. It takes a particularly gutsy or brave poker play to go "all in" for obvious reasons. But, while you take an incredible risk, you have the chance to reaping incredible rewards.

From time to time, we have situations in politics that remind me of the poker concept of being "all in" — and we have one such political situation going on in California politics right now.

The poker player? California’s Republican… Read More

It’s early, but not too early to chew on some fodder. The San Diego Police Officers Association has released a citywide poll (conducted by Dresner, Wickers & Associates) showing Mayor Jerry Sanders leading Steve Francis by 20 points and Jan Goldsmith ahead of City Attorney Mike Aguirre by 13 points in respective one-on-one scenarios. The 400-large sampling was taken the second week in January and mirrors the voter reg. throughout the city.

In the city attorney’s contest, the poll was done prior to Councilman Brian Maienschein’s announced candidacy, but lends significant credence to the contention that his entree would impact Goldsmith’s potential chance of winning a primary outright in a straight-up shot against Aguirre. Add to that the likelihood that Aguirre — if forced into a runoff — would much rather face an incumbent SD councilmember (and all the SEC and pension debacle baggage that goes with the title) than Goldsmith.

If Aguirre’s numbers show a runoff situation, watch him do anything to keep Goldsmith from making it into the final. On the other hand, if potential also-rans stay out, Goldsmith’s… Read More

For a solid day now, I keep hearing from different sources that Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and his "people" have been trying to buck up some of their insider supporters of his term-limits weakening measure, Proposition 93. Over and over I keep hearing that they are saying that "internal polls" show the measure ahead with 58% of the vote. What is the polite was to say this? I don’t believe him. Unless he has a totally biased pollster who is being paid to conduct a survey designed to give artifially high positives for his measure (perhaps to encourage more potential donors). From what I hear (from reliable sources), the measure is running neck and neck, with the numbers FAR below 50%. Normally we would just have to make this a "he said, she said" situation, and shrug. But I have learned that the latest Field Poll survey data on Proposition 93 will be publicly released tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what it says. Hey, if the numbers… Read More

This morning, I wrote about Steve Poizner being "all in" relative to his aggresive leadership role in working to defeat the Fabian Nunez Term Limits Weakening Measure, Proposition 93.

Well, apparently I was wrong.

Apparently Poizner, who already had made a personal contribution of $1.5 million to the effort to defend our state’s legislative term-limits, was a million bucks shy of being "all in"…

How do we know this?

Because NOW he is ALL IN.

Today Poizner opened up his checkbook and wrote another MILLION dollar contribution (FR readers will recall that Steve Poizner, before his involvement in politics, was very successful in the Silicon Valley hi-tech field, and is not hurting for cash).

I caught up with Poizner, who has this to say about his additional, sizable contribution:

When Governor Schwarzenegger unveiled his proposed state budget earlier this month, it caused quite a stir. Instead of shrinking, the state deficit had increased to $14.5 billion, and it may end up higher than that by the June budget deadline. The state now faces a genuine fiscal emergency, and, like a broken record, many of my Democrat colleagues are calling for new taxes and fees to balance the books. I believe taxpayers are already doing their part with revenues up almost seven percent this year, but there is clearly a stark imbalance between spending and revenues. The state’s chronic budget problems are beginning to add up. This year the state must scramble to simply meet its cash flow needs, as lenders downgrade our debt and demand a budget in better financial shape. … Read More

I saw an email from Political Vanguardthat touted after the South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus "No clear front-runner; Romney 1 – McCain 1," or words to that affect.

It is true there is currently no clear front-runner in the race for the Republican nomination. But Mitt Romney didn’t really win what mattered in Nevada. And McCain’s South Carolina win was impressive, but also not quite so important where it matters. What matters is actual delegate count, which is what the primary process is really all about (because one may only be nominated the candidate of the Republican Party for President by actuallywinning a majority of the delegates to the Republican National Convention).

Romney’s Nevada win was not really a win in the delegate sense. The reason is, Nevada did not award any delegates as a result of the caucus. That is still an open question in Nevada. And Romney spent a lot of time in Nevada todevelop this"win," even passing up opportunities to speak in California in favor of Reno audiences. It ispredictable that Romney would do well in states with… Read More

I read an article in the Oakland Tribune today. I know Oakland, I’ve been to church there, and, trust me, there aren’t many Republicans in Oakland. The article said that Republican party candidates were campaigning in Oakland for the delegates available there.

When I visited there, and visited a church in South Central, I heard the same complaint from both pastors, both of whom were Republicans. Both of them said, how can you expect us to stand up for Republicans. When we do, they said, the local political operation turned against them, and made their life difficult. One fellow had a Bush sign up in his store window in the 1992 election, and someone broke his store window. The Republicans response? Nothing. No help, no defense, no response, no nothing. The pastor said we couldn’t expect any help from people if we didn’t stand with them when they were standing with us.

That got me thinking. How are we going to get Republicans interested in places in California that are dominated by Democrats? Legislators won’t do it, there is nothing in it for them. Local candidates won’t do it. They are lost causes, and… Read More

"Party of One" by Sacramento Bee columnist Daniel Weintraub is the book i just finished reading. It is a very good read that i would highly recommend.

The start of "Governor" Schwarzenegger was something that I missed. When I came back from Iraq in the summer of 2003 I had missed the signature gathering for the recall and the tensions surrounding it. When I left, Gray Davis was getting inaugurated for his second term. When I got back, he was toast, and the candidates to replace him included the Terminator, a porn queen, Peter Ueberroth, and Arianna Huffington, 2002 GOP nominee Bill Simon, Gary Coleman, and Senator Tom McClintock. It seemed like things were more stable in Baghdad.

Many of you will not find the parts about the recall as interesting as I did. What you will find interesting is the observations of someone that has observed the Governor almost every day for the past four years.

We all have our views of the Governor that may be based on individual issues. Weintraub breaks down some… Read More