This just out from the Meg Whitman for Governor campaign… We’ll be looking with interest to tomorrow’s Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research survey results, which is the next survey taking place that isn’t sponsored by a candidate…
April 21, 2010
To: Meg Whitman for Governor
From: John McLaughlin
Re: Survey Analysis
Date: April 21, 2010
Survey Summary: In spite of almost $10 million in negative ads from Steve Poizner and further negative attacks from Jerry Brown and his allies in the earned media, Meg Whitman maintains a 31-point lead in the Republican Primary for Governor 55%-24%. While Poizner’s ballot may have increased somewhat Meg’s majority has not declined and it appears that Poizner is coming from too far behind with too little time to matter.
Furthermore, Steve Poizner’s own personal rating has gone from a slight positive to a net negative. While Meg Whitman maintains a very good 5 to 2 majority favorable to unfavorable rating of 53% to 22%, Steve Poizner is upside down with more Republican primary voters disliking him than liking him. This is very bad when your own party should be your popular base. This further reinforces the fact that Steve Poizner will not only lose the primary, but would get trounced by Jerry Brown in November.
In February, Steve Poizner had a favorable rating of only 15% and an unfavorable rating of 10%. Now, Steve Poizner’s favorable to unfavorable rating is 26% to 30%. For every one Republican voter that became positive to Steve Poizner two Republicans became negative.
The fact of the matter is that Republican primary voters personally like Meg Whitman and when they get to know Poizner, they just dislike him. For that reason alone winning the Republican primary for Steve Poizner is hopeless and pointless.
Making this point crystal clear, out of the 600 likely Republican primary voters who we polled, almost 90% had heard of both candidates and they voted for Meg Whitman 58% to 23%. Among those primary voters who had a firm opinion of both candidates, which means they are either favorable or unfavorable to both, Meg Whitman’s lead grows to 68% to 29%. Unless in the remaining few weeks Steve Poizner can make himself a likable person, there’s no way he can win.
It seems that the Republican primary voters already know that Steve Poizner can’t win. When we asked them: "Regardless of your vote, who do you think will win the Republican primary for Governor?" Meg Whitman is the choice over Poizner 64% to 10%. Steve Poizner is not only disliked, but he’s not even viable. Then when we asked: "Regardless of your vote, who do you think is the stronger Republican candidate to beat Jerry Brown in the general election?" Meg Whitman is the choice over Poizner 60% to 16%. Steve Poizner is just not a credible general election candidate for the vast majority of primary voters.
So with only weeks to go, it seems very evident that Steve Poizner can neither stop Meg Whitman nor raise his own popularity to any level where he can make the case that he has any remote chance to win. As the primary date nears and early voting accelerates, the only real outcome is that Meg Whitman will win the Republican primary for Governor.
Methodology: This survey of political attitudes was conducted among 600 likely Republican primary voters in California on April 18-19, 2010. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual Republican primary voter distributions. The accuracy of the sample of 600 likely Republican primary voters is within +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.
UPDATE:
Here is a "response" to the memo from the Poizner Campaign. No one throws down quotes link Agen from the Poizner campaign…
Meg Whitman’s own internal polling released today shows that Republican candidate for governor Steve Poizner has shaved 20 points off Meg’s lead and that Whitman is trending downward fast. Despite Meg Whitman spending over $50 million dollars on false, negative ads against Steve Poizner, Meg Whitman is losing support with each passing day while Poizner’s support continues to grow.
Team Poizner Communications Director Jarrod Agen released the following statement on the shift in momentum:
"Meg Whitman’s candidacy was always like one of those French soufflés one of her private chefs would cook up on her private jet — full of expensive air and destined to deflate. All of Meg’s Goldman Sachs riches can’t convince California Republicans that we need a Barbara Boxer supporter as our nominee. The numbers are moving as we expected, which means in this year’s general election Republicans will finally get a chance to vote for a Republican for Governor."