Welcome to the "spin room" as it were. The latest Rasmussen and Field Poll numbers are in (they are some of the many statewide surveys that are taken, showing snapshots of voter opinion at a given moment), and below is a memo sent from Meg Whitman’s public opinion consultants, John McLaughlin and David Hill, to one of her general consultants, Mike Murphy, outlining why they see the Field numbers as being great news for Whitman, terrible news for Steve Poizner, and very disturbing for Jerry Brown….
Memo To: Mike Murphy
From: John McLaughlin and David Hill
Date: March 18, 2010
Re: Latest Rasmussen and Field Polls
Survey Analysis:
- The latest results of these independent polls show that Meg Whitman is on her way to winning the primary and is the only Republican who can win in November for Governor. In contrast, Steve Poizner is very unlikely to win in November and increasing unlikely to win the primary.
- As we have seen in our most recent statewide Republican primary poll of February 28th, Meg Whitman was leading Steve Poizner 58% to 11%. The Field Poll, as of today, shows an even stronger lead for Meg Whitman in the Republican primary 63% to 14%, with only 23% undecided. This is a net increase from Field’s January survey of 21 points; in January Meg Whitman led 45% to 17%.
- Regarding the general election, Meg Whitman has gained enough momentum to have evened the race, or pulled slightly ahead. The Field poll shows Meg Whitman ahead of former Governor Brown 46% – 43% and the Rasmussen Reports poll shows them at 40% each. Based on these widely respected media polls, the general election shows Meg Whitman and former Governor Brown to be in a dead heat.
- Reviewing the Field poll, Meg Whitman leads Jerry Brown very strongly among Republicans 77% – 13% among Independent non-partisans at 56% – 36% and Meg even takes 20% of the Democrats to Brown’s 69%.
- Regarding the 3 major candidates’ personal popularity, Meg Whitman is now at the most popular with a 40% to 27% favorable to unfavorable rating. Since January, this is a 15 point increase in her favorable. Jerry Brown has decreased in his favorable to unfavorable rating from 44% to 32%, to a more polarized 41% -37%. This is a net decline of 8 points.
- Steve Poizner is the least popular candidate for Governor with 2 negatives for every 1 positive among all voters – 16% favorable to 32% unfavorable. Even Republicans dislike Steve Poizner showing only 20% favorable to 34% unfavorable.
- Steve Poizner remains a decisive loser vs. Jerry Brown. Brown was leading Poizner 48% – 31% in January, and with the advent of Steve Poizner’s TV ads, Poizner is still losing 49% to 32%.
- Quoting directly from Rassmussen: “The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters in the state shows Brown and Whitman earning 40% of the vote each. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and 14% remain undecided. The other Republican in the contest, State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, has has fallen to his lowest level of support yet, possibly in part because of the controversy over the state’s largest public health insurer seeking rate hikes up to 39%. Brown now leads Poizner 42% to 27%. Last month, Whitman and Brown were tied at 43% apiece. Brown held a modest four-point lead in January. Poizner’s support has ranged from 32% to 35% in those surveys.”
Conclusion:
- At this time, these media polls are very good news for Meg Whitman’s candidacy. The campaign is showing a strong early foundation for winning. We are just over two months from the Republican primary and Meg Whitman‘s lead is large and growing against a very popular opponent.
- Looking ahead to the general election, it is still early, but these numbers are very encouraging. To be tied with the incumbent Attorney General who is a former Governor, and is now the unchallenged Democratic candidate for Governor, again, is a truly remarkable achievement for newcomer Meg Whitman.
- Steve Poizner’s poor numbers against Meg Whitman in the primary allow him only to play a spoiler’s role trying to raise Whitman’s negatives. In the end, Steve Poizner is too far behind to win. A continuation of Poizner’s primary bid only serves to help Jerry Brown.
- Of course, the Meg Whitman for Governor campaign has a long way to go; however, we can only be encouraged by the voters’ positive reaction to Meg Whitman’s candidacy and her message.