I always chuckle at my Democrat friends who attempt to influence Republican primaries. The last time they tried to do it was to try and defeat Richard Riordan in the 2002 Republican primary. The Democrats ran commercials that essentially accused Richard Riordan of being pro-life and pro-gun, in other words, the Democrats accused Riordan of being a Republican. Interestingly enough, when the commercials ran, Riordan’s poll numbers started to go up among Republicans. Riordan then essentially went public and denied the commercials, that is, he told Republicans that he really wasn’t the Republican that Democrats were accusing him of being. Riordan lost the Republican primary because he denied to the Republican voters that he was a Republican. With the latest rounds of commercials that the Dems are running against Whitman, the biggest mistake Whitman can make is to respond to them. She should celebrate them.
I am a Poizner supporter. I joined Poizner because I saw Poizner at work. He actually talks to conservatives, and spent time with them. At the 2006 CRA convention, Poizner stayed the whole weekend and talked to the delegates there. They are a tough crowd, and they can try the patience of even the most conservative candidates. Poizner talked to them, convinced them he was real, and won their support. I was impressed, and still am. It was that one event that told me Poizner had the ability to win the Governors race. I may not always agree with him, but watching him at work with activists tells me he is a good candidate, that is important.
Which is why Whitman’s current campaign strategy could backfire. Politics in California is unique, to be sure. A candidate cannot win unless that candidate gets on television, and that takes a lot of money. However, a candidate that only stays on the media, and never gets out to talk to people, press, and activists takes a big risk. That sort of "plastic" candidate never learns the skills necessary to win and maintain an election majority. Dealing with activists, with obnoxious reporters, and with every day working people develops a trust that will serve that candidate well when the election, and governing, comes around. A plastic candidate may win the election, but nothing else. They will have no support, no trust, no "capital" with which to govern.
Yes, meeting with activists, the people and the press is high risk. You may say something stupid, or alienate someone, but so what? One of the reasons that having someone with political experience running for Governor is a good idea is that it is better to say the stupid things in low risk situations. That is, when an Assemblyman, Senator, or down ticket statewide officer holder says something that can be harmful politically, it is not big news. Those officeholders learn how to communicate with the press and the people in a way that sends the message without sounding foolish or inflammatory. Developing those skills helps when running for Governor, and everyone in the press and in politics is listening to every little thing you say.
Whitman is hiding because she doesn’t have those skills, and thinks that being public and approachable (while asking for a public and approachable job) can only hurt her chances of winning. The problem is that she is increasing her chances of losing, even the primary, because people don’t like plastic candidates (just ask Al Checci, or even my opponent in my first election, who spent 300% more than me, but never left his apartment), and should she win, she is increasing her chances of doing something that will cost her the general election, at a time when everyone is watching, because she didn’t hone her skills in the primary. I will admit I am not her consultant and I support her opponent, but I would actually like to win in November, whoever the candidate is. Hiding from the press and from the people is a bad strategy, no matter what the situation. A good candidate likes that exposure, and learns the skill to minimize the negative that can come from those appearances. Whitman needs to come out from wherever she is, and meet people. If she doesn’t, she will become a liability in the fall, when the press will do everything they can to point out her flaws. It doesn’t matter where she is in the polls now, she needs to be a political candidate. Political candidates don’t hide. It is just that simple.