The departure of former Congressman Tom Campbell from the Republican primary for Governor benefits the candidacy of Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner at the expense of former eBay CEO Meg Whitman. Exactly to what degree we will have to see.
First and foremost, I think that Whitman was advantaged in a field where she could run as the only candidate coming straight out of the private sector, challenging two opponents both of whom hold public office. Now, of course, this advantage is gone.
I also believe that Whitman benefited by Campbell’s presence in the race from a gender-perspective, the one woman running against two men.
Finally, I think that with Campbell out of the primary, now means that the ultimate GOP nominee will have to get the voters of over 50% of voters in a closed Republican primary (yes, DTS voters can participate but historically those numbers have been very small). While neither Whitman nor Poizner is a rock-ribbed right winger, clearly Poizner has been posturing his candidacy well to the right of Whitman, whose strong advocacy for public funding for abortion has really had an impact with many conservatives.
That said, to the extent that the primary does get perceived by average voters as Whitman being more moderate and Poizner more conservative, Whitman would stand to gain some support from those who saw Campbell is a liberal-moderate Republican. It is unclear, though, exactly what average Republican voters will make of Whitman or Poizner. Both are largely unknown to the electorate still (Whitman’s never run for office, and Poizner benefited greatly in his election by not being Cruz Bustamante). It will be the mega-buck advertising blitzes largely crafted by back-room politicos that may tell the tale of who, if either, carries the "right" banner in what has traditionally been a pretty conservative group of primary voters.
One this is certain — I do not know when we will actually see some Gubernatorial debates — but it would have been the ultimate annoyance and distraction to have the always-cheerful and pleasant but non-viable Campbell eating up one-third of the time.
As for debate timing — as always it the case in such things, the candidate who has higher standings in the polls (in this case, at this time, Meg Whitman) is loathe to engage in debates. Her campaign undoubtedly figures that such an endeavor can only take their candidate in one direction relative to her opponent, down. Poizner (and Campbell before his departure from the race) has been calling for debates immediately and often. I know that there is a New Majority debate in March in Southern California (great PR for the GOP – a debate between two vastly wealthy candidates in front of an audience of people who will have each paid $10,000 to sit in the room) — and it would be my hope that we would also have a Gubernatorial debate at the March State GOP convention in the Bay Area.
As I said, we’ll ultimately have to see how the Campbell departure from this race turns out. But one thing is for certain, it sets the table from a Whitman-Poizner showdown that will be one for the political record books in so many ways.
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