After talking with a number of savvy politicos whose opinions I hold in high regard, I think it is safe to say that the expected outcome of today’s Special Election in Orange County’s 72nd Assembly District will be that Supervisor Chris Norby will win the Republican nomination, but fall well short of the outright majority of the total vote necessary to avoid a run-off election next month.
The analysis is pretty straight-forward. Chris Norby, as first a long-time Fullerton City Councilmember (the largest city in AD 72) and then as a two-time elected Supervisor, simply had too much positive name identification in the district to be defeated. Most of those to whom I spoke felt that if this election were being held on a more traditional time-line, with a much longer period of time for voters to hear from candidates and advocacy groups, that Republican National Committeewoman and Metropolitan Water District Member Linda Ackerman would have had a very good shot at winning a plurality of support from Republican voters. The short time line meant that literally only a few weeks elapsed before absentee ballots were shipped out and high-propensity AB voters started mailing their ballots back.
While Ackerman’s campaign, combined with two different Independent Expenditure efforts either on her behalf or opposing Chris Norby, will together have significantly outspent Norby, the consensus is that the effort will not have been enough. Much of the third-house money from Sacramento that made up the larger Independent Expediture suddenly came to an immediate halt after that group took a survey a few weeks ago. We can conclude that this survey showed that additional resources would not effect the outcome of the race.
Look for the third Republican, political novice Richard Fahar, to get more votes than expected, as the voters were treated to a two-way smack down brawn between Ackerman and Norby that left Republicans voters hopelessly confused between whether or not to believe allegations that because of accusations of sexual harrassment against Norby that he would bring further discredit to a district hit hard by scandal, or if Linda Ackerman truly was beholding to the special interests in Sacramento and the relationships developed while at the side of her husband, who served for many years in the legislature.
The path for an Ackerman victory necessitated a longer period of time to tell the positive narrative of her credentials, her positions, and her ability to be an effective politician. I don’t think the ink was dry on her nomination papers before Norby was out the gate with the first campaign mailer — a hard hit on Ackerman. Norby, of course, has been interacting with these same voters for years — already having established himself. Given the tiny turnout — most of those voting are the ones actually watching their political leaders.
Now, nothing it certain in life, and as my friend Ken Khachigian has told me many times, an election isn’t over until it is over. So if you are reading this and you live in AD72, don’t use these thoughts as any excuse not to get out there and vote today. Your say is magnified because so many of your neighbors will allow today to slip by without doing their duty.
Am I saying that my friend and colleague on the California Republican Party Board of Directors, Linda Ackerman, can’t pull out a victory tonight? Of course not. I’m just saying that most of those to whom I have spoken on this don’t think that is the likely outcome.
Given what is happening in Sacramento right now, with Governor Schwarzenegger and the Democrats in the Capitol supporting more regulations and higher taxes and fees in the midst of a recession — Chris Norby or Linda Ackerman will inject a much needed sense of reality into that building.
By way of a few closing thoughts, I want to make an observation about the very negative tone and substance of the campaigns of both candidates. I think it is fair to say that neither candidate is happy with how this short but intense campaign unfolded, with less discussion with the voters about issues and ideas and more back and forth character attacks (some more valid than others). I have watched this campaign fray (or worse) longtime friendships, and while I know the greater Orange County Republican community is resilient, it will take some time for wounds from this particular showdown to heal.
I have known Chris Norby for a long long time as a political ally in the fight against big government, and especially the battle for private property rights. That said, between the candidates, it is Linda Ackerman who is my personal friend. Because of my friendship, it has been particurly difficult to watch the political technicians (FR friends all) making tactical decisions (with the consent of the candidates) that have such a profoundly personal impact on people.
I think that anyone reading this who is concerned that their husband, wife, father, mother, son or daughter is thinking about running for office without really considering how politics can and often does turn nasty should present them with copies of all of the direct mail pieces that were produced in this Special Election. It would be enough to "scare straight" any potential candidates.
In the meantime, regardless of tonight’s outcome — tomorrow all eyes will be on the race to succeed Norby on the Board of Supervisors.
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