There is a great debate taking place over the provisions of Proposition 1A on the May 19th ballot. Will the proposed spending cap actually restrain spending at times when revenues are available to spend more? In future tough times, how easy or tough would it be for a Governor to tap the reserve account to prevent cuts in spending? I am still trying to figure these out for myself, and I appreciate all the input I am getting from experts reading the language of the measure and from those who helped write that language.
What I am after is actual projected scenarios. Let’s take four options for the state’s future: low growth in revenue, mid-range growth in revenue, high growth in revenue, and a mixture of these over the next 10 years. What would those budgets look like? Would they be way under the spending cap, bumping up against the cap, or forcing reductions to get below the cap? When, if ever, might the reserve be filled to its limit so that the state could chose to pay down debt, build projects, or reduce taxes?
Those are my questions. But it seems to me that this great debate and good discussion should have taken place in legislative committees before the votes were made final. Thank goodness the voters get to make the real final decision. Even though I am voting against this proposition because of its linkage to billions of dollars of taxes, I still want to know how this proposal for fiscal responsibility might actually work.
