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Jon Fleischman

Today’s Commentary: A Surprise Target

California’s 10th Assembly District was one of the top three Republican ‘defense’ seats during the 2002 legislative elections.  But, after handily carrying the district, incumbent Alan Nakanishi has had little problem holding the seat in subsequent elections.

That is all likely to change this year.  The Democrats have moved the 10th Assembly District near the top of their wish-list, and for good reason.  First, the seat is open, which always makes for a more interesting contest.  Second, a once six-point Republican partisan voter registration advantage has shrunk to just two points.

The 10th District is located in the San Joaquin Valley, split over four counties — El Dorado, Amador, Sacramento and San Joaquin.

Compounding matters for Republican strategists, not only was there a pretty brutal GOP primary contest back in June, but this seat overlaps several U.S. House seats that will likely see action — CD 3 where Dan Lungren is seeking re-election, CD 4 where Tom McClintock is running, and, of course, CD 11 where Dean Andal is trying to take out freshman Democrat Jerry McNerney (this is a top tier seat).

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One Response to “Today’s Commentary: A Surprise Target”

  1. tylerschiess@gmail.com Says:

    Since he has no primary to waste his time with and seems to be outraising Huber this round, do you see him taking this seat this time?