No-I’m not talking about any member of the Legislature.  I’m talking about inside information about what is happening on the budget.  I had a conversation with one capitol insider who told me the budget will be adopted with a tax increase.  So I called around to see what others thought.  The general consensus was that wouldn’t happen.

The basic reason–the Governor needs 9 Assembly Republicans to vote for the budget.  Three Assembly Democrats, Parra, Calderon, and Soto, aren’t voting for the budget (Parra and Calderon won’t and Soto is ill and can’t).  That means 9 Assembly Republicans have to put up yes votes.  However, 31 of the 32 Republican members of the Assembly have signed no new taxes pledges and won their primaries because they signed those pledges, that means at least 8 Republicans would have to break their promises to their voters in order for this budget to pass with tax increases.  I’m betting that doesn’t happen, for several reasons.

(1) Most Assembly members believe they have a political career after the Assembly.  As my earlier post showed, any Republican who votes for a tax increase essentially ends their career in partisan elective politics-No Senate, No Congress, No State wide opportunities, No leadership spots.  They might have a job, like Maurice Johanssen, in the administration, but that will end in two years.  Interestingly enough, right now, the only Republican in the Assembly even rumored to be thinking about voting for the budget is Greg Aghazarian (note to Greg-if you do vote for the budget, just concede your Senate race to Lois Wolk.  Your district only votes for Republicans who stand up for small government and less taxes-just ask Congressman Pombo why thousands of Republicans refused to vote for him in the last election.  Need a guide-talk to Dean Andal, whose principled stand against the new taxes in the 1991 budget, and against Republican Governor Pete Wilson’s call for Republicans to vote for those taxes, virtually assured his re-election in that difficult district).  Assembly members who wish to advance, or even have a chance to advance, in politics will just say no to new taxes.

(2) It is highly likely that, given the current circumstances, Republicans will lose seats in November.  The only thing that will change that dynamic is a recommitment to the principles of fiscal sanity that brought all Republicans to a majority in 1994.  Right now, Republican partisans are disgusted with their representatives, and are expressing that disgust by not voting for them.  if Assembly and Senate Republicans actually stand up for the principles that Republicans hold dear, they might just encourage the rank and file, energize them to work for them, and pick up seats that right now look hopeless.  If Legislative Republicans actually agree to a deal with new taxes, I can guarantee you that small government Republicans (like me) will show their disgust by not voting for Republicans for seats in the Legislature and Congress.  It happened in 2006, it is happening in 2008.  The only thing that will change that outcome is a principled stand for small government and less taxes, despite the Governor, the Democrats and the Press.  Trust me, people will know.

(3) The Governor has pretty much exhausted his good will with Legislative Republicans.  If he had spent his time trying to listen to them and their concerns, instead of ignoring them and taking them for granted, he may have had the good will necessary to cajole the votes out of them.  However, this Governor will not veto big government bad bills, appoints Democrats to key policy positions, appoints Democrat judges, negotiated himself into a budget crisis by selling out to Democrats and bashing the Republicans who were trying to save him from himself, and, for a long time, sat passively by while the Democrats tried to recall Jeff Denham.  He now has to convince those same Republicans to end any future they might have in partisan elective politics because he needs them.  Hey, Governor, they needed you to veto a bill on trans fat, on cell phone headsets, on thousands of stupid, big government ideas, and you said no to them.  It is real hard to get them to say yes to you now.  That is how politics work.  If you don’t have a political safe harbor in which to retreat when things get a little stormy, you are in trouble.  Right now, the Governor is in trouble because he failed to protect his Republican safe harbor.

I may be wrong, but the budget is going into middle to late September, and I believe there will be no new taxes.  I can tell you this, I will spend my time working against any Republicans who vote for a budget with taxes, and I think there may be a few others who do so as well.

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 17th, 2008 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.