For die-hard FlashReport politicos, I thought I would take a few minutes and walk you through “Jon’s Guide to Republican Primaries” – a “cheat sheet” of sorts – with some predictions on my part on what promises to be a very low turnout election (thanks Fabian!)…
I should add for the vast majority of FR readers who are not “insiders” – this column might be a bit hard to digest. There is a facet of our readership who “lives” this stuff, and will appreciate all of this. They are the intended audience for this piece.
First and foremost, and this may go without saying, there are no incumbents that are up for re-election this year to Congress, Senate or the Assembly who are facing a serious primary challenger. So you can check all of those legislators off of the list.
THE UNCONTESTED (OR PRACTICALLY UNCONTESTED)
The following Republican candidates for open safe GOP or competitive general election seats slept quite well last night – they either have no challenger in their primary or if they do, it is someone nominal…
Former Board of Equalization Member Dean Andal coasts into place for a huge, nationally targeted U.S. House run in CD 11. Congratulations to Assemblyman Greg Aghazarian who is the uncontested GOP nominee this fall in SD 5 and to former Assemblyman Tony Strickland who will be the GOP standard bearer in SD 19. For State Assembly seats, former Senate Republican Leader Jim Nielson will replace Doug La Malfa in AD 2, Bill Berryhill will replace Greg Aghazarian in AD 26, Diane Harkey will replace Mimi Walters in AD 73, and Nathan Fletcher will replace George Plescia in AD 75. Also, in AD 36 Danny Gilmore walks through, in AD 78 John McCann will be the GOP nominee, and in AD 80 it will be Gary Jeandron – all of whom will be in “Ground Zero” races this November.
The next category of seats are ones where there is a primary, and it has been more than nominal, but still a front runner has emerged, and I’m prepared to go out on a limb and call the race (how embarrassing for me if I am way off, eh?).
**There is more – click the link**
June 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 am
I agree that Gabriella Holt will win, but her opponent is not a gadfly – he has been the nominee there in the past. She’s just a stronger candidate.
Danny Gilmore is AD 30, BTW.
June 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 am
John – Logue will win AD3 by double digits. Sue Horne’s campaign has been moribund.
I predicted 14, but 12 may be more like it.
McClintock by 23. Turnout here is going to be horrid.
June 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 am
I predict that if McClintock wins the primary, he will lose the general to Charlie Brown and the GOP will lose another “safe” seat to the Democrats. To bad because Ose would win the general and keep the seat Republican.
June 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 am
Tom McClintock will win the general election by a landslide. The leftists who endorsed Doug Ose will come crawling back to Tom McClintock because they want access to our next Congressman. Many of them are shameless whores who only supported Ose because they thought he would win, but they can’t stand him. When Ose loses by a landslide, they won’t waste any time trying to get people to forget that they ever supported Ose. Some of them have already told me so…
Charlie Brown cannot win a as a Democrat in this district. The Fourth Congressional District is quite literally the least likely seat in California to fall to the Democrats.