Last week, a group called Free California announced its intentions to begin recall efforts against five Democratic legislators who voted in favor of stricter gun controls. Widely reported, the groups leader, Jennifer Kerns*, noted that they must listen to the voters and would use the recent recalls of two Colorado legislators as their roadmap.
*Authors Note: I emailed Jennifer for her take on the effort and as of this writing have received no response.
According to Josh Richman’s article in the San Jose Mercury-News, Kerns and her group are targeting ‘swing districts’ in an effort to punish those members for their gun votes.
This strategy is either fatally flawed or a thinly-veiled attempt to push Assemblyman Tim Donnelly’s nascent gubernatorial campaign, for which Kerns also serves as spokesperson.
This is not an objection to holding politicians accountable for their votes while in office. This is not an objection to being upset with a legislator for voting a certain way on an issue – especially one deeply held as guns and the 2nd Amendment.
My objection is that these recall efforts are poorly timed and highly unlikely to succeed – an enormous waste of resources, time and grassroots energy. Of the five Democratic members being targeted, only one – Asm. Sharon Quick-Silva (D-Fullerton) represents a legitimately ‘swing’ district.
Below is a brief table of the targeted members, their district make-up and the results of their last election.
Member District Make-Up Recent % of Vote
Sen. Norma Torres SD32 47D-28R-18N 60%
Sen. Ben Hueso SD40 47D-28R-11N 53%
Asm. Lorena Gonzalez AD80 48D-20R-27N 71%
Asm. Quirk-Silva AD65 35D-35R-23N 52%
Asm. John Perez AD53 59D-11R-19N 82%
The theory that because three of the five members were elected in special election this year, they’re somehow ‘vulnerable’ is a fallacy. John Perez, happens to be Speaker of the Assembly, and is running for statewide office. Wait a year and he’ll be gone.
Torres and Hueso, while elected in specials, enjoy a nearly 20 point registration advantage in their respective districts. They will not be beaten in a recall election.
Lorena Gonzalez from San Diego has both a nearly 30 point registration advantage, and being the former local labor boss in her area, will bring whatever resources necessary to beat back any effort – recall or otherwise.
And that brings us to Asm. Sharon Quirk-Silva from Fullerton. Republicans lost this seat and shouldn’t have. A recall effort in North Orange County might actually succeed – but if it doesn’t, what then? Aren’t we better off organizing the 65th Assembly District, raising the money and field team necessary to take back a (too rare) winnable seat?
Add to all this that the targets of recalls can raise unlimited money with which to defend themselves, a realistic path to victory in any of these races fades further from reality.
The Free California effort is indicative of a larger problem for Republicans in California. We are entirely reactionary and we work only to speak to the lowest common denominator on any given issue. We provide no governing philosophy that California writ-large finds acceptable.
If Kerns and Donnelly really want to help get California back to some semblance of sanity, take the energy they’re collecting and put it toward retaking seats, like AD65 that will help break the Democratic super-majority in Sacramento and prevent the worst of what is likely to come from another term of Jerry Brown – one where free of electoral shackles – may be worthy of a recall effort of his own.