If your name has been submitted by the Romney for President Campaign or the McCain for President Campaign as a prospective delegate for this summer’s Republican National Convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul, you may have a long night and early morning ahead.
Over the past few days, we have seen several public opinion polls attempting to gauge who will win the GOP primary here in the Golden State. Some of these surveys show Senator Mccain ahead, others show Governor Romney ahead. Others show that it is neck and neck. The reality is probably somewhere in this range – it will be a tight race.
For those who are frustrated about the disparagy of some of the polling results, I would take heed in something my friend and fellow blogger Adam Probolsky (a public opinion pollster by profession) likes to say, "The results of a survey of voters is only as accurate as your ability to try and predict who is likely to actually vote."
There are predictions for a record turn out by California voters today. This isn’t surprising since on both sides of the political spectrum, Golden State voters will be actually making a difference in the selection of each major party’s Presidential nominee.
There are predictions that it will take well into tomorrow to actually figure out the results in many cases. Remember that this election cycle, unlike the previous decades here in California, at least on the GOP side, delegates are primarily being apportioned on a Congressional District level (three from each of the Golden State’s 53 House Districts). There are a few delegates being doled out to the winner of the statewide vote, but not many.
If the race is as close as it could be, this means that the winner of each of these 53 "mini-elections" in the House Districts could actually vary — and for the first time in rememberable history, California may send a split delegation to the convention.
One thing is for cetain — your vote counts this year like no other in a long time. So if you haven’t done so already, go cast your ballot. And as a final admonition, I highly recommend you read Dennis Prager’s column, featured as today’s Golden Pen, on our main page.
