Our Golden State Presidential primary is quickly approaching — it’s just two weeks from tomorrow. In fact, to many Californians, election day has come and gone as so many now vote by absentee ballot!
It seems like most people understand that the California Republican Party has changed the way that delegates are allocated — and that we are no longer a state where whomever gets the most votes statewide is awarded all of our delegates. No, this system which ensured that former Governor Ronald Reagan took 100% of California’s delegates to the 1976 convention in an effort to challenge President Gerald Ford is no longer in place.
Or is it?
Back in the 2000 election cycle, many years ago, a change in the system was made by the State GOP with the hope that a new system would infuse more energy and activism into the Presidential primary in California. The idea was that if California was "in play" to figure out a way for Presidential contenders to come and campaign here — even if they could not afford the tremendous costs associated with a statewide effort here.
I remember a lot of discussion taking place among conservative leaders as to what kind of change would have the desired impact. Many of us advocated for some method of proportional representation (where if a candidate received a certain percent of the vote, they might get that percentage of the delegates). Others felt that this diluted California’s overall say in the process. In the end, as will happen in politics, we ended up with a compromise with some of the "establishment" folks who were representing then-presumptive GOP Presidential nominee George W. Bush…
The compromise took place in two forms. The first was an agreement NOT to have proportional representation, and the other was that these changes NOT go into effect for the 2000 elections.
So if we don’t have proportional representation, what DO we have? We have winner-take-all, by Congressional District.
What does that mean? It means that for over 90% of our delegates, the decision on to whom delegates are awarded is a local one.
We will have a delegation of 173 voting delegates going back to the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul this summer. Of those, 159 of those are Congressional District Delegates, 11 of them are At-Large Statewide Delegates, and 3 of them are Super Delegates (this latter group consists of California’s three RNC Members — CRP Chairman Ron Nehring, National Committeeman Tim Morgan, and National Committeewoman Barbara Alby, the latter two of whom have four year terms, which go through the close of the National Convention).
It’s pretty simple, actually. When the election results are completed and certified, and a final tally of the vote is made available, whichever GOP candidate for President gets the most votes (not necessarily a majority) will get the three delegates for that seat. So, in theory, there are 53 separate Presidential elections happening up and down California. The 11 At-Large Statewide Delegates will be awarded to whomever gets the most statewide votes.
Now, while this sounds like a radical change — I submit that it actually is not. It is my belief that the tally of the vote in the vast majority of Congressional Districts will mirror the statewide tally. This is because Congressional Districts are still so large that it would, for the most, part, be difficult to shift the local opinion of the candidates by a lot. Especially considering the national media coverage of these elections, which by and large is the same no matter what part of the state you examine.
So I believe that most of California’s delegates will end up in the hands of the candidate who receives the most votes statewide.
That said, there are two areas on which I think we should all keep an eye trained. The first would be U.S. House seats in VERY Democrat-heavy areas. Many of these seats (mainly in the Bay Area and Los Angeles) have a relatively small number of registered Republicans. Because of this, influencing the votes of literally a few thousand voters can sway the outcome of which candidate receives those three delegates. The other potential areas to watch would be House Seats in areas of the state where a final media blitz is affordable — such as the Central Valley, or San Diego. A candidate with a modest budget could come into the state to wage a local battle. Heck, California’s Central Valley will carry more delegates than many entire other states!
The bottom line is that while we have a different system than we’ve had in the past — it’s really not likely to produce radically different results. I guess we’ll know in a couple of weeks. If these changes do not have the desired effect — more campaigning in California — then we may want to consider a proportional system for the next time!
On a closing note, California Republicans can be assured that 98% of our state’s delegates will be awarded based on which candidates get the most votes, either statewide or by Congressional District. California Democrats have an entirely different system. From reading lefty California Progress Report publisher Frank Russo’s outstanding write up, it would appear that 71 of that party’s 441 delegates (close to 20%) are in no way tied to the votes in the primary. Apparently the "D" in Democrat isn’t a lower-case "d" after all.
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