While our publisher would otherwise point out I am indeed on his FEC reports, the info I am sharing in this post is my own research and view, not Rudy Giuliani’s campaign’s.
OC Blog posted the results of a SurveyUSA poll taken October 12 – 14 showing Rudy Giuliani now has the momentum in California among Republican voters, with a substantial lead of 39%, compared to 18% for Thompson, 14% for Romney, and 13% for McCain. Giuliani’s lead over his closest competitor widened in California from 2 points to 21 points in the 30 days between September and October. Giuliani was shown to have a lead in all categories of Republican voters in California, consistent with a Fabrizio, McLaughlin national poll I reported on here three months ago.
Giuliani’s lead is consistent and is evident in other large states that will send large delegations to the Republican National Convention, and recent polls. In New Jersey, a Quinnipiac University poll taken October 9 – 11 shows Giuliani with 48%, McCain and Thompson tied at 12%, and Romney way back at 7%.
An important consideration for many Republican voters is "who can beat Hillary?" In a head to head match up in the otherwise Democratic state of New Jersey, Giuliani and Hillary Clinton are statistically tied at 44% each.
Giuliani is also doing very well in the large key southern state of Florida. And the conservative Governor of Texas just endorsed him.
The Romney strategy is to do well in New Hampshire and Iowa, two small but early primary states, and hope for a "bounce" in the other states. The problem for Romney is, Giuliani is doing so much better than him everywhere else, across the board, that any "bounce" will likely be just a small "blip."
With respect to my Romney supporting friends in Orange County, in my view the cold reality is Romney’s numbers are looking awful. At this stage in the campaign, 14% in California and 7% in New Jersey are shockingly low numbers for him, and I suspect the pundits are going to begin zeroing in on what the polls demonstrate: Romney cannot win the Republican nomination. To disprove that conclusion, Romney would need to begin a massive and sustained advertising campaign immediately in California to have any real chance, and if he doesn’t, he is in the mode of conceding California to Giuliani without shots fired.
October 19th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Since I took time out of my day to criticize Jill for backing moderate John McCain, I guess I need to comment here about Rudy and his non-conservative credentials…
I remember when the Democrats asked “where was George?” we responded, “at home, in bed with his wife.” I guess that won’t be a proper retort if they ask “where was Rudy?”
If your main criteria for choosing a candidate is “who can beat Hillary” then I would say your best bet would be Obama!
October 20th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Giuliani keeps winning the debates, always is upbeat and has the best sound bites. Romney will have to begin spending his many millions to break the growing trend for Rudy. But Romney will probably begin the spendathon in January right after New Year’s,
The stragegies betwwen Rudy and Mitt are facinating. . Mitt is betting that winning Iowa and New Hampshire will overcome Rudy’s big advantages on Feb 5 [ NJ, NY and CA +]. Soon we’ll be asking everyone Where’s the money?
October 21st, 2007 at 12:00 am
A lot of pundits think that if Romney wins IA and NH, then the polls in all the Feb. 5 states like CA, NY, and NJ will instantly turn around and Romney will take the lead in those states and sail on to the nomination. Others, like Jim Lacy think that today’s polls in the Feb. 5 states are much more likely indicators of where those states will be when they actually vote. If the second group is right, how IA and NH vote will be irrelevant from now on, and presidential primary politics will be utterly changed for good.