In politics, as in economics, we see leading and lagging indicators that provide us with insight on where the country is heading.  Leading indicators predict future trends, while lagging indicators show us where we are today.

Now, one of the leading political indicators has turned in favor of Republicans.

Following the 2008 election which saw the election of Barack Obama and a solidly Democratic Congress, the key leading indicator of political party self-identification turned strongly against Republicans.  Gallup found the portion of the voters willing to call themselves Republicans had fallen to a modern low point.  Many Republicans started referring to themselves as independents.

Political party self-identification is a critical leading indicator because it helps to predict future voter behavior.  Voters are more likely to cast a ballot for a candidate of a party with which they identify, rather than an opposition party.

The correlating lagging indicator is voter registration.  In states with registration by party, people obviously tend to register with the party with which they identify.  The reason for the lag between the two indicators is that voters rarely fill out a new registration form on the day they decide to identify with a political party — most only re-register when they move.  (Since only 29 states have registration by party, national statistics for partisan registration do not exist.  Yet, the statistic is available for examination in those 29 states, including California.)

The good news for Republicans today is that the number of voters who identify with the GOP has grown to 40%, up from 37% in the first quarter of 2008.  This is a good sign that should be followed by an uptick in Republican voter registration numbers.  Republican committees should take advantage of the improved climate by stepping up voter registration efforts in competitive, targeted regions.

The California press often cites the Republican disadvantage in statewide voter registration as an indicator of the party’s challenges in the Golden State.  Such numbers are used to indict the state GOP, as though it is somehow distinct from the national party.  The reality, however, is that movements in voter registration numbers in California tend to mirror the national trends.

The challenge for the California GOP, of course, is that Democrats have a head start of over 2.2 million voters.  Stronger national party identification will provide welcome help and a better climate for registration drives.  Yet, it’s unlikely that national party self-identification will reach the 10%+ advantage for Republicans that would be necessary for a major narrowing of the statewide registration gap to follow on the natural.

Instead, major changes in the statewide registration requires many more urban and suburban voters and members of large ethnic groups take a fresh look at the party.

What really drives what people think of each party? Voters tend not to draw distinctions between the national parties and their state or even local affiliates, and voter impressions of the parties are based largely on how they view the each party’s recognized national leaders.  If people like Barack Obama, they’re more likely to view the Democratic Party positively.  If they like Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, they’ll favor the GOP.

Selection of GOP nominee is critical decision. An inspiring, well-liked Republican nominee will positively define the party and help to draw new members.  Over time, the Reagan Democrats of the 1980’s became Republicans.  Today, the GOP would benefit greatly from a nominee who will do the same for a new generation of voters who are open to a new political home.  It’s one of two critical factors that will influence the partisan voter registration gap in California.

The other major factor is the spillover effect of how President Obama’s dismal approval rating negatively impacts people’s willingness to identify with the Democratic Party which he leads.  That indicator helping the GOP well before we have our nominee.

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GALLUP DATA.  You can see the Gallup data here.  Note that while the emphasis of the article is on the COMPOSITION of the GOP, it also shows more Americans identifying with the party than in 2008, with an improvement of 3%.

This entry was posted on Saturday, October 29th, 2011 at 9:10 pm and is filed under Blog Posts.