Chris Cillizza is one of the more respected political analysts/pundits inside of the Beltway, writing his very high profile, The Fix, for the Washington Post.

Today he published a list of the top ten districts House Districts that he believes are most likely to switch from one party to another.  You would think that topping this list would be one of many "Republican" districts that elected a Democrat last year since the GOP took a wholloping at the polls.

But from sea to sea, Cillizza looked at all of the seats, and has ranked California’s 4th District, currently held by Republican John Doolittle, as the most likely to turn over.

This highlights the challenge for the embattled incumbent.  As the election approaches, the conventional wisdom is that he is too tarnished (in the court of public opinion) to defeat a strong campaign from Democrat Charlie Brown, who nearly beat him last go-around.

Here is what Cillizza says (read the whole column here):

 1. California’s 4th District (Currently R): If Rep. John Doolittle is the Republican nominee here in 2008, the seat is a certain loss for the GOP. The Justice Department recently subpoenaed 11 years worth of documents from Doolittle in connection with an ongoing investigation into the influence peddling scheme of disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Doolittle is fighting the subpoena with the same energy he has pledged to fight plans to push him off the ballot in 2008. If he holds firm, it’s a certainty that establishment Republicans will seek to line up behind a primary challenger and knock Doolittle out before he can put the seat in jeopardy. Democrat Charlie Brown, who nearly beat Doolittle in 2006, is back again. But given the Republican nature of this district, he needs Doolittle on the ballot to win. (Previous ranking: 2)

This entry was posted on Friday, October 5th, 2007 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.