This update just in from FR friend Anthony York over at Capitol Weekly on the challenges (first reported on this website) that the Nunez Career Politician Term Extension Act is having with qualifying for the February ballot…
Just got off the phone with Conny McCormack at the LA County elections office. Here’s the latest:
First, a quick reminder on the numbers. As I wrote in my earlier story, the proponents need 763,790 to avoid the full count. So far, from the counties that have reported, they have a projected 486,508 — a validity rate of about 71.5 percent.
LA has about 264,000 of the signatures. According to McCormack, they are close to completeing their sample count. In fact, they may be reporting to the SOS as early as tomorrow. Though they are not finished, she said signatures are coming back at about a 63 percent validity rate.
That would mean of the 264,000 submitted, 166,320 would be considered valid.
If you add that 166,320 to the 486,000 already reported from other counties, that brings you to 652,800 signatures in. That leaves about 111,000 needed to bypass the long count.
So, the proponents would have to get that 111,000 from the remaining 10 counties, which have a total of 156,000 signatures, give or take. That means in the remaining counties, the proponents would need a 71.1 percent validity rate.
The validity rate in the first 47 counties to report was 71.5 percent.
The other two biggest chunks outstanding are from San Bernardino and Sacramento, which have about 124,000 of the final 156,000 signatures between them. Look for the validity rates from those two counties as the key to the future of legislative term limits.
Feel free to forward this email around, and somebody please check my math.
-Anthony