Yesterday, I had the distinct pleasure of attending one of the Pacific Research Institute’s reliably superb events: a seminar on the Middle East given by Dr. Daniel Pipes. I can honestly say that I’ve never seen such a brilliant man carry his expertise as effortlessly and devoid of pretense as Dr. Pipes did at the PRI luncheon. My feeble attempt to summarize his presentation for FR readers is like trying to squeeze a basketball into a Coke bottle, and there is no way I can possibly replicate the experience of seeing Dr. Pipes in person, but I’ll do my best to give you all a snapshot.
His presentation was entitled, “The Five I’s – Iraq, Iran, Israel, Islamism, and Islam in Europe.”
On Iraq: He advocates “staying the course, but changing the course.” Dr. Pipes is not in favor of a date-specific timeline for withdrawal, but he recommends turning over more responsibility to the Iraqi government faster. He said our troops need to be pulled out of the tactical operations in the alleyways and living rooms of Iraq, and placed on the strategic operations of keeping Syrian and Iran-based insurgents from crossing the borders; protecting oil and gas supplies; and dealing with Al Qaeda, i.e. let the Iraqis deal with infrastructure, electricity, etc.
On Iran: Very simply, Dr. Pipes said we must convince the Iranians that they will pay dearly, both economically and militarily, if they continue to pursue nuclear weapon capability. If we have to move aircraft carrier battle groups in, build international coalitions, and give money to opposition groups inside Iran, then we should. We must do all we can to convince the body politic in Iran that they absolutely will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and that for their own good, they do not want to continue their nuclear program.
On Israel: Dr. Pipes said that the Israeli government has sadly lost a great deal of credibility in recent years, and is probably the most incompetent democracy in the world, in terms of dealing with their most pressing issues. With regard to the Palestinian situation, Dr. Pipes said, “We have no dog in this fight.” The goals of both groups are the same: the elimination of Israel. He said that instead of encouraging negotiations, we have to convince the Palestinian people that eliminating Israel is not a possibility, and crush their will to murder their neighboring State.
On Radical Islamism: Dr. Pipes made a clear distinction between Muslims and Islamists. Islamism is a movement, similar to communism and fascism, that seeks to spread the belief system of the movement globally. He said that Islamists have two means of attempting domination of other belief systems: (1) through violence and terrorism; and (2) through lawful means, e.g. textbooks, working with politicians and the media. Dr. Pipes said we are not in a “war on terror,” because terrorism is a symptom, not a cause. We are in a war of ideas, and to defeat Islamism he suggests two courses of action: (1) fight through counter-terrorism operations; and (2) fight the ideas of Islamism by working with moderate Muslims who have a far greater passion to defeat Islamists than we do, because they have suffered the most, e.g. Sudan and Darfur are by and large aimed at Muslims.
On Islam in Europe: Dr. Pipes said this is the dominant issue in Europe at the present. These are the questions everyone is asking:
What will be the effect of the decline in birth rate of what is called the “Old European Stock”?
What effect will the decline in religious practice have on the continent?
Will Europe continue down the multicultural/PC path, or become more culturally assertive to preserve their age-old cultures?
Dr. Pipes offered no answers to the questions, and said that this is a scenario the U.S. can do nothing about, but observe. Europe is our parent continent, and the lessons that develop as Europe works through these issues could be supremely valuable for the U.S. as we begin to deal with many of the same effects of immigration. (As an aside, I wonder what our Governor would say about this, as he is an immigrant from Europe…)
Tomorrow, I’ll post Part II of this piece, and outline why I believe the responsibility for everything Dr. Pipes described falls squarely on the shoulders of Republican primary voters in ’08. Stay tuned…