Back on October 30 of last year, Duncan Hunter announced his intent to explore a presidential bid.  Even before his morning press conference that day, the FlashReport was up with a first-in-the-nation analysis of the prospects for Duncan’s successor in CD 52. 
  
By the time Roll Call picked up the FR story three days later, another name was in the mix — Duncan’s son Duncan, a First Lieutenant in the Marines who was deployed to Iraq in 2003 and since honorably discharged.  And, Duncan D. Hunter seemed solidly in the mix since the Congressman himself told FR that his son was a name that shouldn’t be left out of any analysis.

For the record here, despite other blog sites saying over a month later "You heard it here first" about Duncan’s son possibly running, in actuality, Roll Call was the first to have it, after FR provided RC reporter David Drucker that little tidbit of information.  You can read the Roll Call story here.

Fast forward.  There’s been a flurry of activity since then, with Congressman Hunter forming the Hunter for President Exploratory Committee last week, setting up a website, saying he’s going to officially announce for POTUS in South Carolina next Thursday, and winning a presidential straw poll of Arizona activists last weekend.

That last NCTimes story mentions that Duncan Hunter indicated he would not run for re-election to Congress in 2008.  Ok, let’s assume that while he’s got his eye on the presidency, he has no intention of running for Congress.  However, I believe the article is incorrect about Hunter ever formally saying he would not.  Rumors swirled after his announcement regarding an assumption he wouldn’t, and sometimes hard assumptions turn into fact.  

Let’s further assume that when he makes his announcement this week, he makes it clear on the Congressional seat.  After all, given the end of his Armed Services chairmanship, Duncan may have no continued interest in serving in the House, regardless of how long the presidential run lasts.  Either way, let’s face it…there’s a lot of time between now and March of next year, when a re-elect would have to be filed.
 
As for CD 52, I have heard both that son Duncan Duane Hunter has no interest and that he absolutely is running.  I will try to pin him down this week.  Assuming he is interested, or his dad talks him into it, would it be virtual suicide for anyone else to take him on, name alone?  He’s not Duncan Hunter, Jr., as his middle name is different.  Thus, he could go on the ballot as Duncan Hunter, pure and simple.  

Is anyone else going to run a campaign against the Hunter Family and a USMC veteran with a message of "He isn’t the Duncan Hunter you may think he is."  I can see the mail piece on that one.  As well, Son Hunter’s lack of campaign experience would potentially be washed aside by Dad’s backing.

Alternatively, can anyone else possibly compete, someone with the right name ID, popularity in the District and perhaps continued momentum from a recent campaign?  Could wealth offset a Hunter advantage, an Eric Roach-type, perhaps a Steve Francis?  In my view, East Countians would shoo-off any perceived downtown SD interest.

With that all said, County Supervisor Dianne Jacob — who would be formidable in this district, name alone — did indicate this week she has no interest:

Jacob won’t seek congressional seat
By SAM HODGSON, The Daily Transcript
Wednesday, January 17, 2007

So, looking at FR’s October list, and knowing what you know now, please tell me what you think.  (And, thanks for the nice cards and letters, but please don’t include me.)

And, have a great week!

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 21st, 2007 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.