Today the FlashReport is VERY pleased to be able to share with our readers that we have a new State Capitol Correspondent joining our team on the FR Blog — none other than retiring Assemblyman Ray Haynes! This is great news as Ray has been a strong conservative leader in the State Legislature since 1992, and has a true grasp and understanding of how to approach the challenging issues facing state government from the perspective of a strong constitutional conservative. Ray’s first post appears on the blog today, and we can all look forward to more insights from him as we go forward. Please join me in welcoming a true national conservative leader, Ray Haynes, to the FlashReport!
Whatever else you read today, do not miss the "MUST READ" column, True Lies, by FR Bay Area Correspondent Bill Whalen, that is at the top of the main page today. This piece that Bill penned for the Weekly Standard online truly demonstrates his ability to pierce through all of the noise and get to the heart of the matter. In this piece, Bill focuses on why the Arnold phenomenon is unique to California, and to Arnold. Don’t miss reading it. Also, FR friend Shawn Steel has claimed today’s Golden Pen Award for a piece he wrote on Arnold Schwarzenegger…
The incumbent protection redistricting plan adopted by the State Legislature and signed by the Governor after the last census has withstood the test of the political pendulum, protecting Republicans and Democrats alike from the winds of political favor, however they blow. The only casualty of war this cycle didn’t come from the 100 state legislature races — those all came down, in the end, without any seats changing partisan hands. But ONE out of 52 House seats did flip from "R" to "D" with the defeat of conservative Congressman Richard Pombo in the Central Valley’s 11th District. That said, look for it to be a very tough seat for Democrats to hold in 2008… In the nail-biter race for the 34th State Senate seat, former Assemblyman-turned-Supervisor Lou Correa, a Democrat, will be returning back to partisan office, eking out a 1000-or-so vote victory over Republican Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher. While credit goes to the Orange County Republican Party (with much financial support from the New Majority GOP finance group) for beefing up registration and making that district competitive — it will be another four years before that seat is back in play.
Of course now there will be a special election in Orange County to fill Correa’s spot. But that isn’t the only Orange County race already heating up. The ink isn’t dry on the 2006 elections and Assemblywoman Mimi Walters has already started making calls and today will be announcing, via e-mail, he candidacy to replace Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman in the State Senate come 2008, when term-limits forced the popular Ackerman to retire from the legislature. Walters becomes the prohibitive front runner — as she is touting endorsements from the other two Assemblymembers that overlap Ackerman’s district — Chuck DeVore and Todd Spitzer. More on this later…
November 22nd, 2006 at 12:00 am
The redistricting line-drawers continue to dictate one party control of districts. Elections are over before the first vote is cast. Incumbents and partisan money brokers win, voters lose.
In the 462 elections following 2002, when the new lines first went in,(153 per cycle, plus 3 specials), only one election – Pombo – changed party control of a district.
Nothing the line-drawers could have done would have saved Pombo, given the massive drop in support for him. From 2004 to 2006, his support dropped in San Jacinto County dropped from 96,000 votes in 2004 to 54,500 votes in 2006 — a 43 percent drop. In the rest of the district, the number of votes for Pombo dropped by 42 percent (numbers as of 11/22).
A few Republican and Independent voters switched to McEnry, but what really beat Pombo was voters who stayed home or left that line blank. No line-drawing tricks can make up for a 43% drop in voter support.
Only a 43% drop in support could overcome the 2001 power-protection gerrymander (and even then it was somewhat close). The gerrymander which continued its near-perfect record of dictating election results even before the first ballot is cast.