It is going to take some time to properly digest all of the results from yesterday’s elections and figure out what it all means. That having been said, I will share some general thoughts about the evening.
Let’s see – on the the "good news" side of the ledger for the GOP: The healthy re-election of Governor Schwarzenegger, the election of Steve Poizner as Insurance Commissioner, and over on the State Legislative side of things, the fact GOP didn’t lose any seats, and looks poized to actually pick-up the 34th State Senate seat in Central Orange County with the election of Lynn Daucher. I suppose Republicans can take some satisfaction out of the defeat of the tax measure (86, 87, 88, 89) on the ballot, too.
On the "bad news" side of things: the loss of Congress and the probable loss of the U.S. Senate, with the exception of Poizner the defeat of all down-ticket GOP candidates, the passage of 40 billion plus plus in ill-advised bond measures, and the defeat of Propositions 85 and 90.
You’ll have to wait a day to get a more comprehensive analysis from me on what I think this all means, as sleep deprevation has me a bid groggy this morning, but I will make some observations about the loss of Congress (okay, besides this from yesterday):
Everyone will try to spin Republican losses nationally – but my ten cents is that the GOP lost Congress (and possibly the Senate) largely for three reasons:
- Too many core conservative voters want an exit strategy from Iraq because while they support going after terrorists, they do not support ‘nation building’ across the globe. No one thinks that a democratic republican would survive a day in Iraq after we leave. This is NOT just a concern with liberal voters – but voters across the spectrum.
- The GOP majority in Congress squandered the trust of core GOP voters by forgetting that Republicans are supposed to be shrinking, not growing the size of the federal government. The vast gulf between the rhetoric of limited government that was touted by House leadership and the very real, continuous enlarging of the government eventually created too much cynicism from conservatives.
- The combination of actual criminal activities by some members like California’s own Duke Cunningham combined with the nearly as bad culture of ‘earmarking’ and lavishing government funds on causes of importance to individual members of Congress also significantly added to the depression of Republicans, and a belief that the House leadership had lost its way.
You will notice that with the three points above, I don’t really give credit to the Democrats for taking control of Congress. I truly believe that their gains came from being the ‘other party’ at a time when folks were fed up with Republicans. (There were some notable exceptions, but they were just that, exceptions.)
Of course, with defeat comes opportunity. Republicans in the U.S. Senate and in the House of Representatives will caucus, and try to figure out for themselves what happened. Hopefully one (and possibly the only) good thing that can come out of last night’s devistating defeats for the Republican Paty nationally will have a chance to gather and go through some critical self-analysis. The good news is that, with a Presidential election overshadowing the 2008 elections, Republicans can come back — but not without making some real commitment to change, and doing it with enough credibility to convince cynical GOPers like me that those changes are for real. A very good first step would be to acknowledge the errors made while holding the majority, asking for forgiveness from the party’s base voters, and then bringing in principled conservative leadership (such as that which is been being offered by the Republican Study Committee in the House) to chart a bold contrast to the liberalism that will be the new mantra under the reign of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
I’ll be talking a lot more, as will our contributors, about the election results, especially the results of the California elections. (In a little while, I am going to pen a column on this very topic for this week’s edition of Capitol Weekly.)
Since I didn’t get home until about three in the morning, I will end this commentary by encouraging you to read the much more extensive and thought out analysis of the election penned by my good friend Steve Frank, over on his California News and Views website.
On a closing note, congratulations to those who worked hard on the Governor’s re-election, and the election of Steve Poizner. And sincere condolensces to those Republicans who lost, with a special word of appreciation to State Senator Tom McClintock, for his strong, principles campaign for Lieutenant Governor.
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