California politics makes the election-day issue of the Wall Street Journal’s Political Diary (it’s tied into a piece on both California and New York):
As two of the nation’s largest states, California and New York share reputations as bastions of liberalism and a congenial home to moderate Republicans such as Arnold Schwarzenegger and George Pataki.
But the two mega-states are likely to diverge dramatically when it comes to tonight’s election results. In California, private polls show Governor Schwarzenegger with a 15-point lead over his hapless Democratic challenger Phil Angelides. More importantly, Republicans are mounting strong races for four down-ballot constitutional offices. Democratic internal polls show Republican Tom McClintock, a conservative icon, leading Democrat John Garamendi by four points in the race for lieutenant governor. In the race for Insurance Commissioner, Republican Steve Poizner has a double-digit lead over Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat who was clobbered by Mr. Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election. Meanwhile, Republican Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, who received a glowing endorsement from the Los Angeles Times, is tied in his re-election race. And Tony Strickland, a former legislator and Club for Growth activist, is narrowly trailing in the race for state controller.
Republican chairman Duf Sundheim says the bright prospects for GOP candidates are due to the organizational strength of the Schwarzenegger campaign, a crack staff led by campaign director and former Dick Cheney aide Steve Schmidt, and a willingness of donors financially to support all Republican candidates, regardless of whether they hail from the moderate or conservative wings of the party.
The picture is completely different in New York, where dysfunctional Republican behavior is the norm. Republican John Faso, the GOP candidate for governor, defeated moderate Bill Weld for the nomination but never had a chance against Democrat Eliot Spitzer. Jeanine Pirro, the GOP nominee for attorney general, has run a campaign that more resembles a soap opera than a contest for pubic office. The only bright spot is the collapse of Democratic Comptroller Alan Hevesi’s campaign over ethics charges. He may lose to Republican Chris Callaghan.
New York State could also be a killing field for GOP congressional seats as Hillary Clinton’s turnout operation brings a flood of Democratic voters to the polls. The races of Republican Reps. John Sweeney and Tom Reynolds are too close to call. GOP incumbents Sue Kelly, Randy Kuhl and James Walsh only narrowly lead their Democratic challengers. The open seat being vacated by Rep. Sherry Boehlert is probably lost to the Democrats. There is an outside chance that Rep. Vito Fossella of Staten Island could be in trouble. Indeed, it is possible that New York Republicans could lose seven of their nine Congressional seats in a single night. New York might be on the way to becoming a giant Massachusetts — a state with one-and-a-half political parties. The occasional insurgent Republican might win now and then, but a Democratic machine would effectively dominate the state.