I know. I know. The Governor is going to win Tuesday. His campaign’s triangulation of California’s voters has been unbelievable. The Phil Angelides campaign wipes from memory the doomed Lungren debacle as worst campaign.

 

So how can the Governor lose? Three ways.

 

First: God Forbid McClintock, McPherson or Strickland loses by a little bit. People will ask how can the Governor be responsible for their campaigns? He isn’t, but at the top of the ticket for any party there is a responsibility to help those underneath.

 

Sure, stomping Angelides and Victory 06 are good things. But when you up 15 points sharing a little love to those below is expected. Imagine the power of an Arnold bus tour with these down ticket folks during the last week. You’ll have to imagine it, because it didn’t happen.

 

Contrast that with Bush whose approvals are horrible, finding places he can be help in the close races.

 

In the LA Times last week, instead of telling the reporter Tom McClintock would never rebuild California, he could have said I need Tom, Garamendi is just like Angelides or something like that.

 

Maybe I have it wrong. I saw a newspaper account that the Governor has campaigned a dozen times for the bonds in the last month. Perhaps FR readers can email me a dozen photos from the dozen joint appearances the Gov had with these down ticket candidates.

 

If it’s a close loss it is because the Governor adopted the Nixon 1972 strategy of winning with huge margins, without coat tails. Or think Bill Clinton.

 

Second:  Speaking of bonds. The Governor loses if the Bonds pass. How can he lose he wanted them all you might say? Well, It’s easy. There is a several billion (Pick a number 4,7,11) structural deficit. Property prices are down. His bills on minimum wage and greenhouse gases take effect costing our economy billions. Prison reform mandates from judges might be coming. And yes these bonds add just under 3 billion dollars in debt and principal payments to the deficit.

 

So while school busses are being retrofitted, water museums built and farm workers sheltered, the Governor has a battle with Dems. How long will he keep his no new tax pledge? I had one COS of an Assembly member told me 3 months. IF he doesn’t go that route, will be able to make the cuts necessary. The budget problem for him was bad, the bonds make it worse.

 

Third: Proposition 90 loses. Perhaps this is a monor loss for the Governor, but a big loss for the state and property owners. His last minute opposition and the conflict of interest charges leveled at his rep on the CRP board will cause problems for him in the future.