Sunday in San Bernardino County was, appropriately, a day of reflection. It started with the McTour bus visiting the Upland GOP Headquarters where Sen. Tom McClintock (pictured right) and Secretary of State Bruce McPherson thanked the volunteers who are helping make 60,000 calls in the county’s final push to get out the vote.
Then there was the memorial service in Devore for the five U.S. Forest Service firefighters who were killed by the Esperanza Fire last week. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger led a moving tribute, and later privately presented flags to the families of the fallen firemen. In the audience were thousands of firefighters, officials from throughout the region and other mourners paying their respects.
Later, back at the Headquarters, a few of us were reviewing some internal polling from the week, including one in which we tested the Governor’s county numbers. He was at 54 percent to Phil Angelides’ 28%. Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger’s statewide numbers were showing him up 49% to 32% and climbing. The new county numbers also showed Angelides leading the governor among his own party’s voters by only 49% to 30%, while Arnold held a commanding 78%-8% lead among his own party’s voters. Among swing voters, Arnold was at 60%; Angelides was at 22%.
What struck me about these numbers was how the Governor has come full circle, bouncing all the way back almost to his previous high water mark of the recall election three years ago, despite the low point he reached just a year ago. Around the time of the special election on November 8, 2005, the Governor’s ratings stood at 56% disapprove and 39% approve. Now his statewide numbers show 57% approve and 41% disapprove. He’s completely turned it around, so you really have to give credit to him and his team. The ads that started right after the primary were masterful in calling attention to Angelides’ weakness. He took Angelides’ primary message and, very early on, defined who Phil was before Phil was able to reinvent himself. That message was that Phil wants to tax everyone to death, and that’s death to a candidate in a general election.
“There’s an energy in the party I haven’t seen in a long time,” one pollster told me this week. “Republicans are really energized, and it’s driven by the popularity of the Governor.”
So now I guess the question is, will Republicans show up to vote, particularly in places like San Bernardino County where turnout has lagged in recent years? Then there’s the Big Question: whether the popular Governor and his “running mate” McClintock – who together took three-fourths of the votes in San Bernardino County and almost two-thirds of the votes in the state three years ago – will be able to pull a few other statewide Republicans, like McPherson (pictured above) into the winners’ circle.