As we go into the final five days of the 2006 election cycle, there is one thing that is clear — there is a lot that will come down to the wire in this California election… Of course, the big prize has already been won — Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is not just going to be re-elected on Tuesday, he is going to be swept into a second term with what appears to be record levels of support. His opponent, Democrat Phil Angelides, was never able to convince his own party members, let alone centrist voters, that he could credibly run California’s large and complex government. He was defined by his policies and the acumen of Arnold’s team, as a taxer. No one is going to go far when their apparent solution for all of woes of the world is to increase the size and scope of government. At least not in America.
I would first and foremost like to draw all FR readers to the feature column that we are running today penned by Ron Nehring. Ron is the Vice Chairman of the California Republican Party, but is also the Chairman of the San Diego County GOP. In today’s column, Ron makes a very convincing case for why the election on Tuesday, and its outcome, are in YOUR hands. Please take the time to read it, and then join me and many of us here on the "FR Team" and go get-out-the-vote these next few critical days.
The headlines in the papers today are all about how the latest statewide poll (Field out of SF) shows a number of the statewide down-ticket races too close to call, with the survey showing that Steve Poizner (yeah!), Jerry Brown (boo!) and Bill Lockyer (hiss!) having solid leads going into the home stretch. The three races that are apparently "neck and neck" are the races for Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State and Controller. (I should add, by the way, that the Field poll is not always the best determiner of outcomes, but working hard for the ticket will help Chuck Poochigian, too.)
By the way, according to FR inside sources, we have Tom McClintock and Tony Strickland actually running ahead of their opponents — but it is still close.
Governor Schwarzenegger and his ace-campaign team deserve a lot of the credit for the GOP being ‘in the hunt’ in so many down-ballot races given the partisan registration figures in the state, with Democrats out numbering Republicans, and decline-to-state voters gaining on both of the major parties for numbers. The question for the five day close is this — how does our Republican Governor best help get as many of his fellow Republicans over the finish line as possible?
He’s already off to a great start, I must point out. In addition to doing well himself (there is nothing like a 15-20 point lead by the top GOPer on the ballot to excite Republicans and suppress the vote of disappointed Democrats), the Governor has made an intense and well-funded statewide GOTV program a high priority. Because of the attentions of the Governor, and his campaign team headed up by Steve Schmidt, there are more resources focused on getting Republican voters to the polls than ever before. It’s awesome and there is no doubt that any Republican that crosses the finish line should be extremely thankful to the Governor for his attention to this out-of-the-spotlight but important investment.
The real question is whether now is the time for the Governor to make some key public appearances on the campaign trail for the final five days — appearing at rallies with Tom McClintock, in GOTV offices with Tony Strickland, riding a Harley with Bruce McPherson, and appearing on talk radio with Chuck Poochigian.
There is one school of thought that says that the Governor appearing publicly with McClintock (et.al.) would actually drive UP Democrat turnout as it would make Tuesday’s election ‘more partisan’ — and there are others, like me, who think that for the final close, the Governor should be using his cache with moderate voters to let them know that he needs a team he can count on. "After three years of Cruz Bustamante upon whom I could not rely, help me by giving me a Lieutenant Governor in Tom McClintock who can truly be part of a team effort to run state government!"
Back in 1994, then-Governor Pete Wilson was running for re-election. Early on, it looked like his opponent, Kathleen Brown (yes, the sister of Jerry Brown!) would be a formidable opponent. But, as it turned out, like Phil Angelides has done this year, her campaign flopped. In the final days of the campaign, Pete Wilson not only campaigned vigorously to bring his Republican running mates with him into office, but he actually cut a series of commercials with the down-ticket candidates which ran on statewide television. FR readers may recall that Wilson’s final push helped to elect several GOPers into statewide office that year.
Now 2006 is a lot different than 1994 — but it is my hope that over the next few days, we’ll see Governor Schwarzenegger pursuing earned media opportunities to help the down ticket Republicans.
Come the New Year, we know that the Democrats will still be in charge of the State Legislature. But there are a lot of critical state agencies and departments that are under the direct supervision of the other statewide constitutional offices — and the Governor can use some backup in these roles — from Republicans.
Again, let me close by praising the Governor. The GOP would not be in the hunt were it not for his strong campaign, and as I mentioned, his strong support of the state GOP’s GOTV apparatus.
It is my feeling that the best way to ‘close out’ the final days of the campaign, with the goal of increasing the number of Republicans who win statewide office, is for the Governor to be "all down-ticket, all of the time" for the next five days — being seen everywhere he goes with our GOP nominees in the close races.
Oh, and don’t forget to read Ron’s column, and remember that while the Governor has his role to play in the final days – you have YOURS to play. Make a difference!
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