From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail (thanks John for the F/R ‘shout-out’):
Washington D.C.’s conservative community is acting as if an invasion of barbarian liberals is at the city’s gates. But out in the nation, the picture is a bit more mixed. California conservatives aren’t depressed at all, despite their state’s reputation as a pure blue stronghold. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger isn’t a traditional conservative but his lengthy coattails may bring along some top-flight conservative candidates who are running for lesser statewide offices. Should State Senator Tom McClintock be elected lieutenant governor, for instance, conservatives say they’ll have a ready-made standard bearer in 2010, when Governor Schwarzenegger will be term-limited out of office.
Even Democrats have given up on any hope that hapless State Treasurer Phil Angelides can knock off the Terminator. "The only issue is whether Angelides loses by single or double digits," a former Democratic state legislator tells me. A big Angelides defeat could have reverberations further down the ticket. Moderate Republicans Bruce McPherson, the incumbent secretary of state, and Steve Poizner, a candidate for insurance commissioner, are already tied or leading in their respective races.
But the Schwarzenegger tide could also bring in Mr. McClintock, who endeared himself to conservatives with his 2003 race in the recall election that elected the current incumbent. Jon Fleischman, proprietor of the influential FlashReport.org blog, told me that California’s conservative grassroots are excited about polls that show Mr. McClintock tied with John Garamendi, his Democratic opponent. "The level of enthusiasm for Tom is enormous, and people are also talking about electing Tony Strickland, Tom’s former top aide, as state controller. That would give conservatives two statewide figures to rally around after Arnold."
Indeed, the discussion about the future direction of the California GOP will begin in earnest right after Mr. Schwarzenegger’s expected re-election next month. "If McClintock wins his election, he becomes the titular leader of the Republican Party because Arnold Schwarzenegger is choosing to be more of the bipartisan leader, as is his prerogative," Mr. Fleischman told the Capitol Weekly newsletter. "If McClintock doesn’t win, it sets up an interesting scenario for Republicans: Would they accept a Steve Poizner as their future? That’s something Republicans will have to work out."