The last two redistricting efforts in California have brought major changes to the Congressional delegation.
The 1992 election saw the election of Lynn Woolsey, Anna Eschoo, Buck McKeon, Xavier Becerra, Maxine Waters, Jane Harman, Ken Calvert, and Bob Filner. Next year will mark twenty years in Congress for this group. Harman would be an exception because of the break she took to unsuccessfully run for Governor but then came back a few years latter but now she is planning to resign mid term.
In 2002 we saw Dennis Cardoza, Devin Nunes, Adam Schiff, and Linda Sanchez go to Washington.
Although every member of the California Congressional delegation has been elected since 1972 (Stark) almost one quarter came to Congress for the first time following these two redistricting cycles.
My prediction is that even though reapportionment did not add any Congressional seats in California retirement will provide at least eight new Members of Congress from California in 2013.
The following members will be 65 or older in 2012. Wally Herger 67, Dan Lungren 66, Doris Matsui 68, Lynn Woolsey 75, George Miller 67, Nancy Pelosi 72, Barbara Lee 66, John Garamendi 67, Pete Stark 81, Anna Eschoo 70, Mike Honda 71, Zoe Lofgren 65, Sam Farr 71, Lois Capps 74, Elton Gallegly 68, Buck McKeon 74, Howard Berman 72, Henry Waxman 73, Lucille Roybal-Allard 71, Maxine Waters 74, Jane Harman 67, Grace Napolitano 76, Jerry Lewis 78, Joe Baca 65, Dana Rohrbacher 65, Bob Filner 70, and Susan Davis 68. That makes 27 of the 53 from California older than 65 years of age.
Rumors about retirements have been swirling for years around Herger, Woolsey, Stark, Gallegly, and Lewis yet each time they file for re-election. Woolsey and Harman have clearly signaled their departures.
Despite these past false reports I think that 2012 is the year we see a large number of retirements. The Commission will be drawing new lines the will not be so nice and comfy for the incumbents.
Right now many people are betting on retirements by Herger, Woolsey, Capps, and Stark. Harman has already announced her intention to resign mid term and Filner is a potential candidate for Mayor of San Diego. That would put the number at five.
I would guess that we will have at least three more that hang it up before the filing deadline and it could be closer to five more. If just half the Congressional delegation over 70 retired that would be a total of seven right there.
The chart to the left indicates next to the name of each California Member of Congress the year they were elected and their age.
Of course, we have anxious Assemblymembers and Senators waiting in the wings to see what these people do. Most every Member of the State Legislature would love the opportunity to serve in Congress.
A Woolsey retirement means a possible upward move for Senator Evans or Assemblymembers Allen, Chesbro and Huffman. Maybe former Assemblyman Joe Nation would like another shot at elected office.
What if Sam Farr were to hang it up? Senator Simitian is a political junkie that would probably love Congress. So might Assemblymembers Monning and Alejo or Santa Cruz Treasurer Fred Kelley or Resources Secretary John Laird.
A Lois Capps retirement might even create an opportunity for former Lt. Governor Maldonado to make a return to elected office. If Capps and Farr were to leave the closest Congressman to Santa Maria would be Elton Gallegly down in Simi Valley.
My list of people that have no chance of retirement includes Thompson, Lungren, McClintock, George Miller, Pelosi, Garamendi, McNerny, Eschoo, Cardoza, Denham, Costa, McCarthy, Nunes, McKeon, Schiff, Becerra, Chu, Bass, Richardson, Loretta and Linda Sanchez, Gary Miller, John Campbell, Issa, Bilbray, and Hunter. This list is a combination of how long they have been in office, age, and opportunities to do other things.
Every one of the retirement possibilities will impact at least one member of the Legislature that will take a chance at going to Washington. So my over/under is 9 new members of Congress from California.