At any point in a campaign its important to be in the lead. In July, in a Statewide race for California Governor, a lead doesn’t mean much as a predictor of a final outcome. We still have most of the playing field to travel, and much can happen over the next three months. Its especially important to lead a race at this stage to facilitate the raising of money. Big Donors and other groups are front-runners – they like to give to the leading candidate far more than the one trailing. Sp Arnold’s lead presently is mostly about maintaining a solid fundraising effort, which he appears to be doing.
While I still don’t see or feel any real energy in the GOP base the Democrats are angrier than ever – and demoralized. I have yet to meet a Democrat that sincerely believes Angelides can win. They are clearly not energized.
In the final analysis one would rather be ahead than behind. But predicting an outcome in this race is like predicting who will win the National League West this year in baseball – too early to tell. Arnold’s chances have risen from 40-60 to even money over the last few weeks. He’s got to be encouraged by that.
July 28th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Michael:
Looking back at recent past Governor races, I could only remember two
in which the candidate trailing in July came back to win.
First, there is George Deukmejian, who rallied past Mayor Tom Bradley
in the memorable 1982 contest.
And second, Pete Wilson trailed 44-39 in a July 1994 Field poll, but that
was down from a 12-point Kathleen Brown lead in April 1994.
In this case, Gov. Arnold is expanding his lead and pulling away. That
may give us a good reason to be optimistic.