Recently, some Republican leaders were noted in the press as having the goal of transforming California into a ‘purple’ (or ‘swing’ state) rather than into a red (safe Republican) state. The presumption behind this thought is that given the raw registration numbers, the ideological numbers, and the current gerrymandered districts, it’s a more attainable goal to move the state into the push column rather than establish political hegemony.
I agree, at least for the foreseeable future. While total victory is an admirable goal under most circumstances, there are circumstances where one’s strategic interests and the actual situation on the ground dictates a less comprehensive short or medium term solution. For the California Republican Party simply being in the game to run the government would be an enormous victory. And for our national party, forcing the Democrats to view California as a swing state and spend tens of millions of dollars to defend it in Presidential, Senate, and Congressional elections, would be a blessing.
I’ve had brief discussions on this issue with a few more or less brainy campaign and strategy gurus around the state over the last few days in anticipation of having the write this commentary early Sunday morning (This being my second Father’s Day, you see, I am already salivating wildly at the thought of the mounds of rare meat that I intend to work through like a threshing machine from about 10am on wards. In those few moments where I am not using both hands and perhaps a stick to shove additional cow down into my surprisingly roomy gullet, I intend to loll without appreciable movement by the side of a pool and listen to WWII stories). Anyhow… I basically asked them about the basic strategic situation in California in the context of blue v. purple v. red and here’s where they agreed:
First, party lines are more stable than they were in the past. Meaning, Democrats now generally vote for Democrats, Republicans for Republicans. Pure registration is closer than it was in the past, but Democrats still have a significant advantage. That strange species "The Reagan Democrat" has basically either become a Republican or moved away. The Democrats that are left are mostly either ideological liberals or ethnic minorities, neither of which is an easy sell for the GOP. Point: there isn’t some big bloc of Democrat voters just waiting to hear our conservative message so they can vote Republican. This generally means turnout programs for our Republican base are going to be more important than advocacy programs to Democrats.
Second, the giant urban areas of Greater Los Angeles and the Bay Area (surprise) are disasters that are only getting worse. Five of the six folks I chatted made a point of going over the raw numbers in these areas and suggesting that long-term programs were needed to address our free fall in those locations: sooner rather than later. While the exurbs are growing, and growing more Republican, in order to ever move this state into the red column we simply have to do better in Greater LA and the Bay Area, which will require sizable investments in bolstering already resurgent County GOP organizations, recruiting down ticket candidates, establishing GOP organizations, and, perhaps most importantly in these mega-media markets, re branding the Republican Party in the media. Until that time, purple state is as far as we are going to get at best.
Third, with the solidification of party voters, 3rd party and DTS voters take on increased significance and need to be the focus of identification and advocacy programs. No great shock here.
And fourth, and perhaps most controversially, to ever become a ruling party in this state, we may do well to re-address our own 1980’s driven conception of what the GOP in California stands for. For at least a decade, probably longer, we have argued internally, "conservatives" v. "moderates", over the same ground. We aren’t selling anything new or anything interesting – and the consumer (voter) is telling us just that.
Now my view on this fifth bit is that there no need to surrender basic conservative principles and positions… we don’t need yet another "moderate" revolution. I think we need to protect the basic conservative Republican values which drew me and most other Republicans to this party in the first place. But there is a real argument that if we want to start moving the state into the purple column towards red, as a party we need to agree that we need to start openly discussing and addressing those issues voters, particularly swing voters, are actually interested in, many of most of which don’t fall in the internal issues matrix which has defined our internal ideological battle for so long.
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