In what will be great news for liberals far and wide, I will be leaving on vacation to Great Britain 
tomorrow morning to return just in time to celebrate America’s birthday on July 4th! The good news is that during my absence, the FlashReport will continue to bring you all of the latest and greatest news on California politics. Nicholas Romero, whom you have seen as a guest editor for this site has been promoted and is now the Managing Editor of the FlashReport. Nick will be editing the main page of the site for the next few weeks, as well as joining the FlashReport Weblog with his own observations and analysis. Congratulations, Nick!
I am also pleased to announce that many of our regular contributors from the Weblog have agreed to step up and make sure that this Daily Commentary page updated each and every day, starting with our Central Valley Correspondent, Mike Der Manouel, Jr., who will be posting on this page tomorrow.
I’ll still be monitoring my emails (somewhat irregularly) from my vacation. If you want to get a hold of Nick, you can write to him here.
Cheerio and all that!
See you in July!
Jon
P.S. Below is some analysis from me on the State Insurance Commissioner’s race!
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INSURANCE COMMISSIONER ’06
STEVE POIZNER – A STRONG OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GOP
Last election day, John Kraft received 617,443 votes. Who is John Kraft? No this isn’t a takeoff from my favorite Ayn Rand novel. John Kraft was a Democratic candidate for State Insurance Commissioner. Kraft received nearly a third of the votes for this office as a virtually unknown candidate who, according to the Secretary of State’s webpage, didn’t even raise the funds required to file a campaign report — which is like $1,000.
Well, the real story behind Kraft is not who is he — but rather, who he is not. You see, about 30% of Democrats who voted on election day cast their ballot for "Mr. Unknown" rather than vote for the Lieutenent Governor of California, Cruz Bustamante (pictured moping to the right).
Why does Bustamante have such high negative ratings with voters of his own political party? It could be a number of things. Perhaps the way he carried himself during the recall election? Or maybe it is that all it seems like he has talked about from his bully-pulpit since the recall is attempts to lose weight? Or maybe it is a protest from Democrats against seat-swapping, and one constitutional officeholder tries to ‘move’ to another office? It really doesn’t matter why they don’t like him, what matters is that Bustmante has a serious problem on his hands, one that puts him at a severe disadvantage to his Republican opponent before the general election campaign really even begins.
STEVE POIZNER, THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE
Steve Poizner (pcitured to the right) has matured into a great candidate for Insurance Commissioner. He had a rocky start as he entered into a primary with two long-time GOPers — one who enjoyed considerable grass-roots Republican support and the other who had the resume of having carried the torch for the GOP in this race four years ago against John Garamendi. Still Poizner was unfazed as he went toe-to-toe with his two primary opponents, stubbornly defending some past support of Democratic candidates, acknowledging that he should not have done this, and that it was a mistake. In the end, both challengers dropped out, primarily due to two reasons — they each lacked the financial resources to run a statewide down-ticket race and they also watched as the GOP leadership in elected office, over a period of months, endorsed Poizner’s candidacy.
Poizner lists the following reasons for "Why California Needs Steve Poizner as Insurance Commissioner" on his website:
* Steve understands that healthy competition in the insurance marketplace reduces the cost of doing business, lowers rates, and benefits consumers across California. Steve will work to increase rate competition and fight insurance fraud that victimizes consumers. Steve will maintain independence from the insurance industry and will not accept contributions from the insurance industry or its employees.
* Steve has proven bi-partisan voter appeal, coming within three points of winning a Bay Area Assembly race against a well-financed Democrat, in a district John Kerry carried by 34 percentage points.
* Steve has a proven commitment to California’s working families. A driving force in the charter schools movement, Steve and the Poizner Family Foundation have contributed nearly $2 million to improve the lives of children in inner cities. Steve Poizner has played a major role on the boards of Aspire Public Schools and New Schools Venture Fund, and he is a co-founder and member of the boards of the California Charter Schools Association and EdVoice.
* Steve is the only candidate who can beat Cruz Bustamante and his trial lawyer backers. They will again spend millions to elect their man in Sacramento. Steve is the only candidate with the will and the resources to defeat Cruz Bustamante.
I have spoken at length with Poizner, and while he has a rather wonkish demeanor to him, he is like the Energizer Bunny when it comes to his enthusiasm for this race, and he is passionate about bringing his free-market, pro-liberty philosophies to bear in this office.
Steve’s successes in business have made him more than a billion dollars, which helps him to have the resources to do this job. He can read people pretty well after years of meeting and evaluating candidates, and his passion for this job is not about a rich guy trying to buy a trophy — this is a serious man who really wants to give back to the country and state that have allowed him to be successful.
With his drive, energy and resources — as well as a positive plan for the office – Poizner is charging hard for a win this November. And with Bustamante’s biggest enemy being himself, and his own unpopularity, Poizner is positioned to be the GOP’s best shot for a statewide pickup this November (with all due deference to Senator McClintock and others).
TWO BIG CHALLENGES FOR POIZNER
Don’t get me wrong, Poizner still has two big challenges before him — one of them he can wrap his hands around and do something about, and another one that is virtually out of his control.
Steve Poizner is virtually unknown in California. Yes he ran for the State Legislature a few years back so perhaps in one San Francisco Peninsula Assembly District, he is known. But in the other 79 district, he will have to work hard to introduce himself to the public, and try to maintain a presence with voters through the din of an absolutely chaotic general election season. As if the ‘battle royale’ between Governor Schwarzenegger and Treasurer Phil Angelides wasn’t a big enough distraction, you have McClintock v. Garamendi and the other down-ticket races, and there are a TON of ballot measures that will appear on the November ballot, starting off with all of the massive borrowing packages, but plenty more from there.
Look for Poizner to jump out of the gate and start with a statewide media campaign soon. I would imagine you will see him on television, and hear him on the radio, and he takes advantage of his financially positive personal advantage to acquaint voters with his candidacy early. This will both build up his name identification with voters, and send a loud message to would-be supports of Bustamante that he will have a serious fight on his hands, and that they might want to think twice about backing the ersatz Governor of California.
The challenge that Poizner and the entire GOP ticket face in November is GOP turnout. You see, Republican turnout in this last primary was at an all-time low. Base Republican voters are disenchanted with their party, and its leaders. President Bush is suffering from extremely low popularity, as is the Congress. It’s no wonder, given that the top issues of concern to GOP voters include a desire to see spending cuts (while the GOP has presided over record-growth in the size of the federal government), a hard-line against illegal immigration (with the President is parading around with an amnesty plan to forgive law-breakers) and finally Republicans want to see an exit-strategy to accomplish a mission in Iraq and then bring our troops home. In this midst of this we have a Republican ticket in California being headed up by a Governor who is distancing himself from the the unpopular President, but at the same time is also touting spending, and support for an amnesty plan (calling it a ‘guest worker program’) that doesn’t require criminal aliens to leave the country – even to get a legitimate visa.
ADVANTAGE: POIZNER
Like I said, there isn’t a lot that Steve Poizner can do about overall GOP turnout – that isn’t going to turn on the State Insurance Commissioner’s race. But the President, Republican Congress, and certainly the Governor can all improve GOP turnout in November by campaigning for fiscal conservatism, and attacking the bloated federal and state budgets. We’ll see how that goes. In the meantime, keep an eye on Steve Poizner.
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