As mentioned earlier, in San Bernardino County’s four-way race for Assessor Tuesday, challenger Bill Postmus, Chairman of the Board of Supervisors, captured more than 46 percent of the vote in his first countywide bid. The incumbent, Don Williamson, ran a distant second finishing nearly 13 points behind. As I’ve also said, a key factor in this result was the presence of two other candidates in the primary, who combined to take about 20 percent of the vote.
It’s important to again emphasize the significance of Postmus’ accomplishment in this race, and how strongly he is positioned for November:
1. Roughly two-thirds of the votes cast for Assessor were for someone other than the incumbent.
2. No incumbent who placed second in a San Bernardino County primary has ever won the runoff. As a general rule, in runoff elections more of the remaining votes against the incumbent tend to go to the remaining challenger.
3. Even Williamson’s razor-thin re-election margin four years ago illustrated his weakness. In the 2002 primary, Williamson received nearly 46% of the vote while his closest challenger, Linda Foster, received 34.5%. In the runoff, Williamson increased his votes by less than 5% while Foster increased her share of the vote by 15%.
4. Also in the 2002 primary, challenger Michael Ramos received 42.7% of the vote to incumbent District Attorney Dennis Stout’s 35.3%. Understanding the aforementioned rule of thumb, Stout wisely suspended his campaign recognizing the virtual inevitability of Ramos’ success in the November runoff.
As noted previously, Postmus-backed candidates also showed well Tuesday, picking up victories in AD 59 (Anthony Adams) and AD 65 (Paul Cook), while the Supervisor added to his majority on the County Republican Central Committee. Adding further to Postmus’ list of successes Tuesday was the significant margin of victory for Board of Equalization nominee Michelle Steel. Steel took 36.75% compared to Ray Haynes’ 32.19% in the county. Postmus emerged as an early supporter and helped Steel pick up key endorsements and donors, even hosting an event for Steel while at the same time running his own election. Postmus also introduced Steel to the deputy sheriffs’ association (SEBA), whose highly effective countywide slate mailer included Steel. Steel called Postmus’ move “gutsy” as her challenger, Haynes, is a sitting Assemblyman in Postmus’ neighboring County of Riverside.
Also mentioned earlier, Postmus’ candidates for Republican Central Committee dominated Tuesday. One of the criticisms sometimes leveled by rival factions to the current majority on the county GOP is the notion that the party shouldn’t be endorsing in nonpartisan elections and primaries. Fittingly, during this election the county party under Chairman Postmus for the first time strongly backed a Superior Court Judge candidate. The county headquarters helped Deputy D.A. Steve Malone’s campaign complete thousands of volunteer phone calls and multiple micro-targeted mailers. The GOP endorsement also allowed Malone to be included on the county party’s slates and other official communications. The result was a strong showing for Malone (43.8%) over fellow deputy D.A. Larry Roberts (30.64%) and perennial candidate and liberal activist lawyer Marjorie Musser Mikels (25.24%) in the countywide race. Malone will now advance along with Roberts to a November runoff.
“Our success in nonpartisan elections speaks for itself,” Postmus said, “and our overwhelming Central Committee victories show that Republican voters approve of what were doing. So we’re going to keep doing it.”