The late hit is the fear of every consultant, candidate and spouse of a candidate. And I am sure, whatever form it takes, mail or TV or radio or phone call, the late hit will always be in play as long as there are elections.
However, I believe, and it seems every other consultant I talk to, thinks the late hit is ineffective and often times backfires.
To illustrate this point, does anyone remember that just days before the Presidential election in 2000, it was released that George W. Bush had a DUI back in 1976? Most American’s don’t. But at the time it made Bush, a responsible father and husband and governor, into a sympathetic figure, being attacked by those who wanted to bring him down. Ostensibly to help the other guy he was running against, who ever that was. I can’t remember.
So if you (read your consultant) has ‘the silver bullet’ hit mail piece on your opponent printed and ready to mail just days before the election, think twice. It could and probably will backfire. And condemn you to be forgotten.
NOTE: Don’t get me wrong. Negative mail works–just not when you introduce new over-the-top negative info on your opponent this late in the game.
May 25th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Workin’ Joe Baca
Genuine Joe Baca Jr.
.
.
.
um…Jeremy “Bud” Baca?
I think there is some merit to what you say here, Adam. I think that human beings naturally expect the mudslinging in the final week of the campaign and thus “price it into the stock” so to speak.
There used to be something called the January effect in the markets…which, for the most part no longer exists. Generally speaking, many funds would sell stock in December to readjust portfolios, purge dogs and other assorted bookkeepping/tax purposes.
In January, the funds would then start buying stock again and almost like clock work…the market would rise due to the influx of buyers.
Overtime and through various mechanisms, the market grew more and more efficient and effectively negated this annual event.
My point is that voters tend to ignore last minute antics. I am not so sure that there is a backlash though.