Prominent California Democrat strategist and consultant Garry South predicts Republicans pick up the United States Senate in 2012… From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…
Webb Exit Tilts Senate Map
How much trouble are Democrats in as a result of Virginia Sen. Jim Webb’s decision to retire in a normally Republican state? A great deal if, you listen to Democratic consultant Garry South.
"It would take divine intervention to save Democratic control of the Senate in 2012," Mr. South told Politico.com. "Neither party can defend 23 Senate seats in a single election year."
Democrats certainly start the race for Mr. Webb’s seat as underdogs, but surprises can happen in politics. What if former Sen. George Allen, who lost his seat to Mr. Webb in 2006 and is now running to reclaim it, should lose to tea party favorite Jamie Radtke in a GOP primary? And what if Ms. Radtke subsequently turned out to be a weak candidate who alienated moderate Republicans.
Also, Democrats might discover that former Rep. Tom Perriello or former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer are be much better candidates than anticipated. If President Obama is running strongly in Virginia, they could hold the seat. Former Virginia Gov. Tom Kaine has said he won’t run for the Democratic nomination, but expect some White House pressure for him to change his mind. He, too, would be a formidable candidate.
Granted, all of the above is possible. But the most likely outcome is that Democrats will lose yet another Senate seat in the South. Virginia, after all, has gone Republican for president in every contest since 1964, with the exception of Mr. Obama’s 2008 victory. It trended strongly Republican last November, and any Democrat running for Senate will have to navigate the unpopularity of ObamaCare and the public’s concern over huge federal deficits.
Keeping the Senate just became that much harder for Democrats.