As FR readers know, there is now a vibrant primary gearing up for who will represent the former seat of "Duke" Cunningham in the next Congress. On June 6th, all voters will be asked to choose between Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby in the run-off for the special election for the remaining months of Duke’s unexpired term. But GOPers only will also be able to choose their nominee to take on Francine Busby (again) this November with the announcement that conservative, wealthy businessman Bill Hauf will actively compete for the nomination.
The 50th Congressional District is home to a lot of conservative Republican voters. In the recent special election, roughly 70% of votes to GOP candidates went to conservative/reform minded candidates. Moderate former Congressman-turned-federal lobbyist Bilbray won the very crowded primary with about 15% of the total votes cast for Republicans. You can be sure that Bilbray beat out his nearest competitor, conservative businessman Eric Roach, because independent, Decline-to-State, and Democratic voters could ‘cross-over’ in the special and vote for Bilbray. It wouldn’t have taken many of these non-GOP votes to have given Bilbray his narrow win. That said, Bilbray will now have to face GOP-only voters in the June primary. Bilbray will have a huge advantage as the GOPer on the ‘other half’ of the ballot going up against Busby. It’s a very convoluted message to try to tell Republican voters — vote Bilbray on this ballot question, and vote for Bill Hauf on the other. Add to it that Hauf achieved less than 2% of the vote in the special election when he ran, despite a well-funded effort.
One of the big questions that has been raised by some, including the Bilbray campaign, is whether Hauf is even viable as a candidate, and whether his running will only serve to hand the special-election victory to the Democrat. Bilbray’s campaign consultant, FR friend Dave Gilliard, had this to say about Hauf’s decision to run: "Nancy Pelosi has two words for Bill Hauf and his campaign team: THANK YOU. Hauf’s selfish decision to launch a negative campaign against Republican nominee Brian Bilbray could greatly damage the Republican Party’s ability to hold onto the 50th congressional district and, ultimately, damage our country if Democrats take control of Congress in November."
A lot of the controversy surrounding Brian Bilbray centers around his dismal record on so many core GOP issues when he served in the house for six years. The reason WHY this is controversial goes to the major issue that is most likely to endanger the Republican Majority in Congress come this November’s elections — demoralized conservative voters. In the 50th, it is demonstrating itself in two ways – the first is the difficulty that moderate Bilbray is having getting GOP primary voters to rally behind his campaign (thus the recent polls showing how competitive this race is in a seat that a Republican should be handily winning) — and probably more importantly is the solidarity that Bilbray’s former conservative opponents are showing in not supporting him. Conservative businessman Eric Roach openly considered running in the primary, and was urged by fellow conservative candidates like Howard Kaloogian and Hauf. While Roach decided not to run, he hasn’t been very high profile in his support of Bilbray, either. Hauf’s candidacy, to take him at his rhetoric, is largely centered around the fact that Bilbray is a moderate.
Of course, this entire debate centers around the chasm that exists between Republican Party positions, and the actions of our Republican majority in Congress. The GOP majority has literally been thwarted by big-government Republicans (they seem to have coalesced into an organization called the Republican Main Street Partnership) — and these folks (a minority of the GOP caucus in the House and Senate but enough members to keep the GOP from having a majority of votes on any issues) are dedicated to growth in government. They WILL NOT reign in entitlement spending. They WILL NOT support across-the-board cuts in spending. They WILL NOT aggressively oppose amnesty and refuse to legitimize those who came into the country illegally. They WILL NOT support drilling in the ANWR to reduce dependence on oil from the Middle East. Note that these are all FISCAL issues. This doesn’t even begin to approach the great divide on social issues.
So you have to ask yourselves why House conservatives (two good examples would be Darrell Issa and Ed Royce, FR friends both) would have supported Bilbray IN THE PRIMARY (Issa practically RAN Bilbray’s campaign, Royce endorsed in the final days, when it was so clear that a conservative could win the primary). Issa and Royce, among others, are on the front line fighting the policy agenda of the Main Street Partnership agenda of big government, but yet they foist upon us a nominee in CD 50 who, if elected, would likely JOIN the Main Street group, and make the task of implementing a conservative policy agenda even more difficult. It is conservatives who backed Bilbray who have now created this mess. A nominee in a special election who doesn’t excite conservatives, and a divisive primary that might further endanger the seat — because conservatives finally get it. Moderate Republicans in the House and Senate are the single greatest threat to our majority because they make us a party of RHETORIC instead of action.
Of course, all "good party people" support Bilbray over Busy in the special. But is there really any wonder why, given this situation I have articulated, the support is tepid, and lacking enthusiasm? A 33% ++ increase in federal spending under a GOP Congress and with a Republican in the White House is the single greatest threat to our majority.
FREE ENTERPRISE PAC GOES SOUTH
I was extremely disheartened to see come over the transom that Brian Bilbray received the endorsement of the Free Enterprise Fund PAC.
There are a handful of conservative groups in Washington, D.C., that truly understand the battle that is before us, and really ‘get it’ that our biggest problem lies not with the Democrats, but from ‘the enemy within’ our own GOP tent. Profligate ‘big spenders’ who are registered in our party, but don’t share our belief in a truly limited role for the federal government.
Some of these groups would include the American Conservative Union, The Club for Growth, and Citizens Against Government Waste. There are a number of others (perhaps the subject for another column), but I was profoundly disappointed that the Free Enterprise Fund put their stamp of approval on Brian Bilbray. It kind of hit me right in the guy. Previous to this endorsement, I would have placed them with the other conservative groups who ‘get it’ — but this endorsement shows them to be part of the problem. Conservative groups (not "GOP" groups) need to have standards, and if a candidate (especially a squish like Bilbray) doesn’t meet their criteria, then let those candidates go get their support from elsewhere. By the way, these moderates will get their support as special interests groups flock to these Congressmen who don’t have a defining ideology — prey for the needs of their ‘clients’.
I put a call into Mallory Factor yesterday – Factor is the head of the FEF. But he never called me back. Anyways, it was very disappointing to see this group endorse Bilbray, and I can only imagine Steve Moore (a great guy, a writer now for the Wall Street Journal, who helped found the FEF) rolling his eyes as his former group sold out. Especially since Bilbray has an actual record on which to be based. They certainly lost an advocate in me after this endorsement.
I will add, again, for the record, if I lived in CD 50, I would vote for Bilbray over Busby in the special election. He’s better than she is for sure. But his election does nothing to help our real battle in Congress, because while it strategically helps in the number of "R’s" on the Hill, his election will also embolden the Republican Mainstream Partnership folks, who will be more resistant than ever to the kind of meaningful spending cuts that the GOP needs to put on the President’s desk this year.
Take care!
[Update: After finishing this commentary, I did get a voicemail message from Mr. Factor of the FEF, telling me that he was available tomorrow to talk. I’ll let you know if there is any update after I speak with him.]