"Two Elections, One Conservative Choice."
This is the big print on the first piece of political mail that will hit the mailboxes of Republican voters in the 50th Congressional District in the campaign of conservative businessman Bill Hauf, who will today announce his official ‘entry’ into the race for the regular June primary for this heavily GOP Congressional District occupied until late last year by former Congressman/now-convict Duke Cunningham.
You can check out the mail piece by clicking the link to it at the bottom of this column.
In April, a host of GOP candidates duked it out in the Special Election ‘primary’ and former Congressman now Federal lobbyist Brian Bilbray, with about 15% of the GOP vote in that dust-up, earned the honors to go up against Democrat Francine Busby in June. But this special election run-off is on the same ballot as the regular primary, where all of the GOP candidates who appeared on the special election ballot last month once-again appear.
Bill Hauf, who had a poor showing in that April election (less than 2%) has decided to run in the regular primary. Hauf is banking on that fact that this go-around, there will only be two GOPers actively campaigning for the votes of Republican voters in this second ballot-question — himself and Brian Bilbray.
You can read from my weekend piece on Bilbray that the former Congressman racked up a rather dismal record of conservatism in his previous three terms in the House.
Hauf’s first piece presents a "Republican Report Card" on Bilbray, giving him an "F" on Taxes and Spending, an "F" on Gun Rights, a "D" on Family Values, and an "Incomplete" on immigration.
The Hauf piece also gives an insight to how confusing this ballot may be for voters, with a significant portion of the mail being devoted to explaining to voters about how there are two separate elections taking place in the 50th on the same ballot.
Hauf’s entry into the race isn’t surprising news for anyone who knows Bill Hauf. I had an opportunity to get to know Bill as he was along on a recent two-day foray to Washington, D.C., when a group of us traveled back with businessman Eric Roach, who just shy of Bilbray in the special, and was the ‘conservative top-vote getter’ in the race. Roach ultimately decided not to run, but Hauf has decided to step up for conservative values.
One has to admire Hauf — after all, the dynamics of trying to win a primary with Bilbray make the task daunting. If the special election were not on the same ballot, then this would be a straightforward battle between a conservative and a liberal/moderate Republican. But there is an added dynamic at play, with GOP voters also being expected to rally around Bilbray to prevent Francine Busby from being elected in the Special Election.
I spoke with Hauf’s campaign Communications Director David Gilroy yesterday (I played phone tag with Hauf) who said that Hauf is definitely in the race. Hauf’s lead consultant on this race is the talented Chris Jones, out of the Sacramento Area. I have known Chris for a long time, and he will run a smart campaign – but that said, if I were Bilbray, I would hold onto my seat. Jones has no problems with running a ‘contrast campaign’. As a matter of fact, I don’t see how Hauf can win unless he makes a strong, convincing case to Republican voters in the 50th that electing Bilbray (to the full term) would send the wrong message to Congress.
Of course, it is also worth noting that Hauf spent over a million dollars in the special election, and Gilroy told me that, "Hauf will spend whatever he needs to in order to get out his conservative, reform message."
It will be interesting to see how this develops. One thing is for sure, a Hauf v. Bilbray primary will certainly bring more conservatives to the polls in June. The question is whether they will vote for Hauf on one ballot, and Bilbray on another…
We’ll be following this race with interest!
Have a great day!
Jon
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