The following from Ken Moser, a perfect voter in CD 50. This, of course, addresses nothing about the quaility of the pieces or the mail universe, but it does (except perhaps for Kaloogian) reflect somewhat of a correlation between the number of pieces and outcomes….that’s probably a "DUH," but it is interesting to see the numbers:
I just went through the pile of mail I had gotten for the election to do a count and here it is:
Bilbray – 20 pieces of which two were in letter format one of which was from Mayor Sanders
Roach – 19 pieces of which six were in letter format two from his wife and one from former Congressman Packard
Uke – 10 pieces of which two were in letter format
Morrow – 9 pieces of which two were repeats of the same mailer and one letter format from his mom
Kaloogian – 4 pieces
Hauf – 4 pieces
Earnest – 3 pieces
CRA – 3 pieces hitting Bilbray
NRP – 1 piece asking GOP voters to vote
NRA – 1 piece hitting Bilbray to NRA membership
So, it appears Busby sent nothing to Reps, or more likely not to to five for five under 50 male voters with NRA membership cards!
Ken also gives an analysis: "I personally like the letter format but I believe voters were overwhelmed with it in this race (11) and I didn’t even open any of them until after the election. Assuming I’m right, it could be argued that had Roach done less letters (6 out of 19) he might have won. Obviously Kaloogian would have done better with more mail but he made inroads by having what appeared to be the only ground campaign. Lastly in my area of Mira Mesa (San Diego’s largest community) I saw few signs for anyone."
And, this in from the County GOP Chair Ron Nehring:
Fact Sheet: 50th Congressional District Election Results
It turns out the election results from last Tuesday’s special election in the 50th congressional district were even less favorable for Francine Busby than initially reported.
REPUBLICANS FINISHED AHEAD OF BUSBY. Combined the Republican candidates received 53% of the vote against 44% for Busby. The 9% lead for Republicans is far more relevant to likely performance in the June 6 runoff than Democrat-spin about how Busby finished ahead of her closest rival, Republican Brian Bilbray.
BUSBY’S PERFORMANCE EQUALS THAT OF (LOSER) JOHN KERRY IN THE 50TH. Francine Busby’s performance turns out to be exactly the same as John Kerry’s 2004 performance in the 50th district. Kerry lost, of course: his 44% compared to 55% for Republican George Bush in the district.
MEET DONNA FRYE. Busby’s performance ahead of her Republican competitors is strikingly similar to Donna Frye’s first place finish in last summer’s mayoral special election. Frye finished first with 43.14% of the vote on July 26. Jerry Sanders finished a “distant” second with 27%. And what did this “commanding” lead translate in to for Donna Frye in the runoff election on November 8? A big loss. Anti-Frye voters consolidated in their support for Republican Sanders, who went on to defeat Frye 54% to 46%.
THE 50TH CD IS NO CITY OF SAN DIEGO. Sanders’ decisive victory in the mayor’s race came despite the fact there are 30,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the City of San Diego. In the 50th, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 52,000.
MORE DEMOCRAT SPIN ABOUT THIS “COASTAL” DISTRICT. Democrat spinmeisters being paid way too much money to redefine reality keep talking about how this is a “changing” “coastal” district that is not as friendly to Republicans “as it was.” When these guys finally put down the Thomas Guide and figure out the difference between the 76 and the 78 freeways, they may want to take another look at the 50th.
The biggest city in the district is “coastal” Carlsbad. While the other team tries to portray the coastal cities as mini-San Franciscos, the data tells a different story. Republicans outnumber Democrats in Carlsbad by over 10,000 voters, and by about 10,000 in Escondido, almost 2,000 in Encinitas, and 5,000 in San Marcos. Even in the People’s Republic of Del Mar, we outnumber the Democrats by a few hundred. Democrats have a majority in no city in the district.