Logan Jenkins, a columnist for the San Diego Union Tribune, lays out Governor Schwarzenegger for being at fault for the current bizarre predicament facing Republicans and voters in the 50th Congressional District.
Republicans just finished a bruising primary where well over a dozen candidates, for the most part 
overwhelmingly conservative, sliced up the special election vote so much that moderate Brian Bilbray, with about 16% of the vote, won the right to carry the GOP banner against Democrat Francine Busby in the June run-off. To the victor of this one-on-one battle goes the right to fill out the rest of Duke Cunningham’s unexpired term until the end of this year.
But what about the next term? The full two years. And, of course, the decades beyond for a safely ensconced politician in a state where the partisan gerrymander ensures that general elections are not competitive?
The regular primary for this House seat is on the SAME DAY as the special election run-off, and every Republican candidate who was on the special election ballot also appears on the primary ballot (each candidate was hoping that they would win that special).
Thus lies the quandary. All Republicans have a vested interest in showing Francine Busby the door, and letting her get back to her teaching job. None of us want her in Congress. Nevertheless, Brian Bilbray hardly holds appear for conservative voters who overwhelmingly voted for other candidates.
So the first question is whether conservatives will bother to turn out at all to cast a vote for Bilbray? More than ever, conservatives have a reason to just stay home if their choices are between a Democrat and a moderate Republican. After all, as you have read in these pages, moderate Republicans are to blame for the fact that despite having a GOP majority in both houses of Congress, there have been no significant spending cut bills passed and placed on President Bush’s desk for signature.
What then would get conservatives to the polls? What would turn out GOPers who are frustrated with the lack of results in Washington, D.C.? Well, I am not an expert, but certainly a competitive GOP primary with a conservative running hard on conservative issues would seem to do the trick. If conservatives who ran in the 50th CD special election could unite behind one standard-bearer in the primary — say conservative businessman Eric Roach (pictured above) who came in a close second to Bilbray, topping the other conservatives in the races), then there would be a reason for conservatives to turn out.
Busby wouldn’t have a chance as the high GOP turnout for a competitive GOP primary would also ensure her loss as the dynamic would be similar to last week’s election. While conservatives would be turning out to vote for Roach, they certainly would (with noses held) for Bilbray over the far-leftist Busby as a ‘caretaker’ for the rest of the term.
(I believe that Tom McClintock’s presence on the special election ballot for the recall helped to ensure its passage, having an articulate conservative on the ballot.)
Understand that if Roach doesn’t run, not only do we have a conservative turnout issue, but we also have a risk nationally of sending a message that the GOP doesn’t understand that our challenge is our own governing majority. Re-electing a former Congressmen with a strong record, while in the House, as being a moderate, only would strengthen the hand of those in Congress who are comfortable presiding over big government. Fortunately Republicans might have a win-win in rejecting Busby in the special, but at the same time unifying behind a solid conservative for the full two-year term.
Of course, most frustrated in this whole process, I’m sure, is Bilbray who I think honestly believes himself to be some sort of libertarian on fiscal issues. Well, it comes back to the same notion I have touted for years — the idea of a ‘fiscally conservative/socially moderate’ legislator is a myth. I don’t know if it is that the fire and energy and passion that one has for social issues makes one more ‘hard-core’ on fiscal issues — but I can only tell you that I have been repeatedly disappointed by these so-called ‘libertarians’ who (on occasion) get elected, and then quickly show an ‘accomodationist’ attitude towards fiscal liberalism. Bilbray can try to argue that he is different than all of those others, but my level of cynicism at the spending in Congress and the track record of social moderates who have conned me in the past is too long.
Anyways, these are my opinions, and I invite discussion on them.
Have a great day!
Jon
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Of course they will turn out. Two words: Illegal Immigration. Have you even looked at polling in that district? Illegal immigration #1 issue. Gov’t spending??? Not very high up there. Bilbray is tough on the issue most important to voters in the 50th. And how about this? CRA and Flash Report can stop with the continuous negative hits on Bilbray, and maybe that will help with the conservative turnout as well. Instead you are helping to create a problem, so you can create a solution (Roach) to it. It’s a dangerous game.
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Treasurer candidate Keith Richman is a true fiscal conservative/social moderate. He has withstood repeated carpet bombings by the public employee unions for his efforts to address the greatest public finance issue of the decade, retiree benefit costs. No other legislator has demonstrated such strong commitment to protecting taxpayers from these huge and growing costs.
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
No need to speculate about Senator McClintock helping the recall by being on the ballot: The CRP, which endorsed the governor, did $70 or $80K worth of election day polling so they would actually know what happened with the recall vote and why.
In their own presentation to high-dollar donors they explained how the survey results showed that had Senator McClintock stood down as requested, the recall would likely have lost by the narrowest of margins. Arnold might have gotten a slightly higher percentage of the replacement vote, but he would not have become governor since the recall would have failed and we will still have Gray Davis in the corner office and be paying three times what we did last year to register our cars!
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Not to be an -ss, but the votes were cast, does that not mean the people (in the district) have spoken?
If you enjoyed the Clinton years then stay at home I suppose. I didn’t, I choose to vote.
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
There is NO valid reason for Republicans of any stripe “to just stay home if their choices are between a Democrat and a moderate Republican,” even assuming Brian Bilbray is the latter. The stay home and stew school of losing elections has proved its worth; we don’t need further research to know it’s bad – and irresponsible – politics. If the Elections Code rightly prohibits our elected party officials from endorsing opposing candidates, certainly its spirit extends to encouraging ALL Republicans to support the party’s nominees, not to opt out of doing so in periodic, self-destructive fits of pique.
Brian Bilbray =/= “so-called ‘libertarians.'” And exactly what did he ever do to become an “accommodationist” on fiscal issues? Last time he was in Congress, he looked pretty frugal to me, and he hardly kow-towed to the social left, as most-recently reaffirmed by his tough stance toward ILLEGAL immigration. Correct me if I err, but when he was last in Congress there was neither the same frustrated impetus for fiscal restraint nor the rampant porking that now exists.
I say let’s unite behind Bilbray and give him a chance to show what he can do now based upon his proven record of what he did before. And let’s not get ahead of ourselves, lest we put the cart before the horse only to run off the road. One election at a time: if the “conservative” mandate does indeed spread south of the OC-SD County line, let it reveal itself in the regular primary for the next term of this seat, not bar Bilbray’s way to Washington for the remainder of the present term.
Mike German
Member, SD Republican Party (78th A.D.)
Commissioner, City of Chula Vista Board of Ehtics.
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I admire Tom McClintock and believe his presence on the November ballot might save Arnold. But, as the consultant for the Recall campaign, I can tell you that the idea that Tom’s presence on the ballot saved the Recall is absurd. Our polling always showed the strongest and most intense support for the Recall came from conservatives, who were highly motivated to oust Gray Davis.
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Dayna: The voters in the 50th did speak giving Mr. Bilbray the right to run in the special and finish the term. They also spoke when 60% of the votes casts for Reublicans went to conservative candidates, which I think tells you what they will do when they choose the nominate for the full term.
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Dave, it is usually my place to say the party folks are being absurd, but in this case they actually did the right thing by getting real data: You should ask them for a copy.
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Although I personally think you couldn’t ask for a better candidate than Brian Bilbray, if conservatives think he’s too moderate then I think they should go ahead and run a conservative for the full term.
But for God’s sake, anybody but Roach!
Why pick the one candidate who is weak on illegal immigration?
April 17th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I concur with Mike German on this statement:
“There is NO valid reason for Republicans of any stripe “to just stay home if their choices are between a Democrat and a moderate Republican,” even assuming Brian Bilbray is the latter. The stay home and stew school of losing elections has proved its worth; we don’t need further research to know it’s bad – and irresponsible – politics. ‘
I would suggest an analogy: Reform-minded voters in Iran, fed up with the lack of reform, stayed home in the last election. That led to that lunatic Ahmadinejad winning the presidency.
April 18th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Mr. German:
If staying home is not a valid option, what recourse do conservative republicans have when faced with a party that is drifting/veering to the left and vacating the principles that brought that individual to the party to begin with?
April 18th, 2006 at 12:00 am
JT, Vote in the June primary for the candidate of your choice, AND vote for BB to fill out the remainder of the present term. Given the short length of the latter, it’s not asking too much to keep the seat a Republican one for now – however much it might offend “conservatives” – in order to increase the likelihood of its remaining a Republican one in the future.
Beyond the election, get involved in the party – if you’re not already – and work to bring it around to your views, just as others and I are working to bring it around to ours. Since we disagree about where it’s going, we all must be doing something right! ;)
April 18th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Conservatives could vote the same way they did for several elections when Randy “Duke’ Cunningham was their representative. Just not vote for any candidate. That is exactly how Busby recieved enough votes to be encouraged to continue to run for Congress.
A ‘NO’ vote sends a message that voters are not happy with a candidate. Voters want strong representation and leadership.
April 23rd, 2006 at 12:00 am
One thing I wonder:
How do Morrow and Kaloogian feel about a nobody coming into the race and buying himself a 2nd place showing (and almost a 1st place)?
Granted I am an interloper since I am neither a resident of San Diego county nor am I a conservative.
However, if I lived in the 50th district, while I would enthusiastically support Bilbray, I would also enthusiastically support Morrow or Kaloogian, were one of them the nominee, because they have track records of leadership on the biggest issue facing our country, illegal immigration.
I am just very puzzled why anyone would support Roach, simply on the grounds that he is supposedly a “conservative”.