Tonight, Republican activists and donors from all around San Diego County will cozy up at the Kona Kai resort at Shelter Island for the County GOP’s annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner (if you know local party boss Ron Nehring, it’s not hard to understand how his hero, Ronald Reagan, got equal billing on the marquis on this annual event).
There will be a "who’s who" of the Republican scene on hand with Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman, incoming Assembly Republican leader George Plescia, San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders and a host of statewide Republican candidates all coming to support their party, and hear from keynote speaker Jim Gilmore, the former Republican Governor of Virginia and also a former Chairman of the Republican National Committee.
But it won’t be Gilmore that is the star attraction at this event tonight, nor Ackerman or Plescia, or even my buddy Ron Nehring. No, tonight is going to be all about Brian Bilbray and Eric Roach. As you have all read, Bilbray appears to have eked out a narrow victory in a crowded field for the honor of being the lone GOP contender on the ballot against liberal Democrat Francine Busby in June. As I wrote yesterday, all Republicans should be united behind Bilbray in that one on one race. Bilbray or Busby… Even for a conservative like me, who did not advocate Bilbray as a first choice, there is a clear contrast between those two candidates.
That said, the bigger question is what will happen for the official Republican Primary for the full-two year term for that House seat. 50th District voters will actually be voting TWICE on the same ballot in terms of Congressional representation. They will choose between Bilbray and Busby for who will serve in the House through the end of the year, filling out the rest of Cunningham’s term. As I said, this is an easy choice.
But Republican voters will also have their first real opportunity, in a contest where ONLY REPUBLICANS will vote, to choose their nominee for the November show down with Busby. I am sure that Brian Bilbray will vigorously campaign for the GOP nomination for the full two-year seat (one can’t think that he got into this for only an 6 month stint). Bilbray might be able to expand his slice of the pie a bit — he can take all of the establishment endorsements and combine that with the momentum from the ‘open primary’ win he narrowly won on Tuesday, and parlay that into a strong run in a GOP-only primary. He would probably enjoy the support of National and State party leaders as well, who will have trouble distinguishing between rallying behind Bilbray on one side of the ballot against Busby, and the fact that the first chance for just Republicans to choose their Congressman is taking place on the next page over.
Moderates in this primary seemed to coalesce around Bilbray in the final days of the open primary. Wealthy businessman Alan Uke attacked Roach, but gave Bilbray a pass. In the meantime, conservatives split up their vote with Morrow, Kaloogian and Roach battling it out until the end. There is an opportunity for conservatives to unify behind on candidate in the closed GOP primary on the June ballot.
This takes us back to tonight’s dinner. Brian Bilbray will want to give the speech of his career tonight — but his audience will not be Gilmore and company, it will be businessman Eric Roach (pictured), and Bill Morrow and Howard Kaloogian. If Bilbray can’t get these folks to support him to be the Congressman for the next two decades, by endorsing him not just for the special election runoff but rather for the actual ‘real deal’ GOP primary for the full two year seat, he may be in serious trouble. That said, it would be trouble of his own making. Conservatives have trouble with Bilbray because he has been soft (or worse) on a lot of issues that are important to us, especially social issues.
I’m not in a position to tell readers whether Eric Roach will gear up a campaign for Congress in a closed June primary. But I will tell you this — if he can unify conservatives around the idea that a hard-charger who will make a difference within the governing GOP majority in Washington, who will join the Republican Study Committee (the conservative caucus in the House) and fight for real change should represent the 50th long-term — then he should seriously think about it.
And for those people out there who would question the wisdom of a GOP primary taking place on the same ballot as the special election runoff, and how that can advantage Busby — I would just say this… One more or less Republican in the House the next six months is not going to change anything – it really won’t. Republicans aren’t using their majority now to reduce the size and scope of spending, and one less vote for six months isn’t going to change that. I think Bilbray still wins the short-seat because the increased GOP turnout with a competitive primary for the full-term as well as the overall increased turnout because these elections are on the regular June ballot take Busby out of the hunt. That said, what is that saying, "One step back to take two steps forward?" I’m open to that. I am that frustrated with the GOP majority’s lack of results in Washington, D.C.
I think Roach should seriously think about a run. He should talk to the other leading conservatives who ran in that special election, and determine if the political will exists to send a Congressman to Washington in January who fight for all four "F’s" – freedom, free-enterprise, faith and family.
I don’t dislike Brian Bilbray, and he clearly would be a better vote than Francine Busby. But his record in Congress from his last stint, plus all of his insider endorsements from the very Congressmen, like Ways & Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, that are the problem in Washington — lead me to the conclusion that Bilbray is simply not going to lead an RSC-driven charge on the Hill. On the contrary, he will "pin-up" and fit right into the club.
Well, it’s not me that Bilbray needs to convince. It’s several hundred Republicans gathered for dinner tonight, and especially one Eric Roach, who has to decide if he has the political fortitude and courage take the next step. If he does, this GOPer from the neighboring county to the north will send him a check. I care that much.
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